The CAI has announced it further expects a decrease in total seasonal production which stands at 330.50 lakh bales, a decrease of 9.25 lakh bales as was projected earlier. The decrease of 9.25 lakh bales was due to readjustment of production in India’s cotton-producing states. Gujarat was the only cotton producing state that projected a 0.5 per cent growth and has the distinction of growing output by 17 lakh bales.

As per Ajay Dalal, member of the CAI crop committee Gujarat cotton sowing increased to 25 lakh hectares this season from 22 lakh hectares in previous year and yield has also improved. Dalal also stated Gujarat’s cotton crop is expected to increase by at least 17 lakh bales to 93.50 lakh bales. Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka experienced the highest decrease of 2 per cent whereas the decrease in Haryana was 1.5 per cent. Telegana experienced a decrease of 1 per cent whilst Lower Rajasthan had the least decrease of 0.5 per cent. The 330.5 lakh bales were calculated based on per unit being 170 kgs each.

Supply statistics reinforce decrease imports

The cotton supply estimated by the CAI till end of cotton season 2022-23 i.e. upto September 30, 2023 is 374.39 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The total cotton supply consists of opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2022, crop for the season estimated at 330.50 lakh bales of 170 kg and the imports for the season estimated by the CAI at the same level i.e. at 12 lakh bales of 170 kg each.

CAI’s import estimates for the corresponding year 2021-22 was 14 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The decrease in import has been attributed to the 11 per cent duty requirement and cotton-growers and mill owners are hoping that the next Budget will see a decrease in the import tariff. The total cotton supply for the months of October 2022 to December 2022 is estimated at 116.27 lakh bales of 170 kg each which consists of the arrivals of 80.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each, imports of 4.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each at the beginning of the season.

Domestic consumption and exports

The report stated cotton consumption estimate was at 300 lakh bales of 170 kg each, whilst the previous year’s consumption estimate was 318 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This season’s domestic consumption has been the same as the previous season, pegged at 65 lakh bales of 170 kg each for the months of October 2022 to December 2022. In terms of exports, the CAI estimate up to 31st December 2022 is the 2 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Stock at the end of December 2022 is estimated at 49.27 lakh bales of 170 kg each including 35 lakh bales of 170 kg each with textile mills and the remaining 14.27 lakh bales of 170 kg each with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and other MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. This includes cotton sold but not delivered.