ICAC’s current price projection for the year-end 2019/20 average of the A Index has been revised to 80 cents per pound this month. The price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 89.7 cents per pound this month.

If, as expected, global cotton production in 2020/21 (estimated at 24.6 million tonne) is unable to keep pace with global consumption (estimated at 25 million tonne) and worldwide trade remains healthy (estimated at 9.8 million tonne), that combination of factors normally would be expected to drive an increase in price.

However, ongoing trade tensions between the US and China will continue to have an impact on prices, and the recently announced US restriction on cotton from Xinjiang — which produces about 9 per cent of China’s cotton lint each year — complicates the outlook as well. If fully enforced, the restriction would place a very difficult burden of proof on companies throughout the long and complex cotton supply chain.