According to estimates by Jefferies Global Research, China’s share of global personal luxury goods expenditure has skyrocketed this year, right after the end of the pandemic’s first wave.
The share grew from 38-39 per cent of the global market in 2019 to 80-85 per cent in 2020. The figures are explained by China’s rapid recovery once the lockdown was lifted - the country hasn’t been hit by a second epidemic wave, unlike the rest of the world - and by the travel restrictions that forced Chinese consumers to spend domestically rather than abroad.
In the next five years, China expects a slight decrease in this 80 per cent share, but it is evident that it won’t return to the 38 per cent share of 2019. Luxury expenditure in China will continue to account for 55 to 60 per cent of the global market, said Flavio Cereda-Parini, Managing Director, Jefferies.
These forecasts diverge slightly from those recently published in the 2020 annual luxury market report by consulting firm Bain & Co., which predicted that Chinese domestic consumption in 2025 will account for 26-28 per cent of the global luxury market, compared to 11% in 2019 and 20 per cent in 2020.