Brazil is set to maintain its status as the world’s preeminent cotton exporter for the 2025-26 season, effectively decoupling its market dominance from a projected production dip. While the National Supply Company (Conab) recently revised its output forecast downward to 3.8 million metric tons - a 6.3 per cent decline from the previous cycle’s record - the industry is leveraging high carryover stocks and an aggressive export strategy to absorb global demand. This structural shift signals Brazil’s transition from a volume-chasing producer to a sophisticated market stabilizer that now commands nearly one-third of the world’s total cotton shipments.
Yield rationalization amidst climatic volatility
The current cycle faces a marginal yield contraction to 1,884 kg/ha, down from the exceptional 1,954 kg/ha recorded in 2024-25. This reduction is primarily a byproduct of tactical ‘safrinha’ (second-crop) planting windows in Mato Grosso, where producers are prioritizing soil health and cost-rationalization over sheer output. Raphael Bulascoschi, Analyst, StoneX, noted, while cotton remains highly competitive, the sector is entering a phase of ‘tighter margins,’ necessitating a shift toward efficient marketing management rather than land expansion.
Market displacement and the rise of ‘Green’ dominance
Brazil’s rise is most visible in its successful displacement of traditional suppliers in key Asian garment hubs. In a landmark shift, Brazil recently supplanted India as the primary cotton provider for Bangladesh, the world's second-largest apparel exporter, securing a 23 per cent market share. This ascent is fueled by the Responsible Brazilian Cotton (ABR) program, which now certifies 84 per cent of the national crop. By aligning with the Better Cotton Standard, Brazilian exporters are providing the traceable, low-carbon fiber required by European and North American retailers facing 2026's stringent ESG mandates.
Logistics and the ‘Cotton Brazil’ 2030 Vision
The Brazilian Cotton Producers Association (Abrapa) has renewed its strategic partnership with ApexBrasil to fulfill the ‘Cotton Brazil’ mission: becoming the absolute largest global exporter by 2030. Despite the production dip, export volumes are forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 3.06 million tons in 2026. This growth is supported by improved port logistics in the Matopiba region and a 16 per cent forward-selling rate already achieved for the new crop. As US supply remains constrained by acreage compression, Brazil’s ability to offer ‘stable supply at competitive pricing’ is reshaping the global textile hierarchy.
Abrapa manages the national sustainability and traceability programs. It mainly exports to China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh and for 100 per cent bale-by-bale traceability and top global exporter status by 2030. The association is known to have transformed Brazil from a net importer in the 1990s to a global leader through rainfed agronomic innovation.
