FW
UK retailers navigate liquidity constraints as Spring fashion demand stalls
British fashion and lifestyle retailers faced a challenging fiscal opening this spring as persistent inflationary pressures and unseasonal weather patterns suppressed consumer appetite. According to recent retail monitors, fashion sales volumes in March 2026 registered a marginal decline, continuing a trend of cautious discretionary spending. While the broader retail sector saw a 1.2 per cent uptick in total value, the apparel segment lagged significantly, struggling to clear winter inventories while attempting to introduce high-margin spring collections. This stagnation is largely attributed to a ‘wait-and-see’ consumer mindset, with many households prioritizing essential goods over seasonal wardrobe refreshes.
Inventory imbalances and the discounting dilemma
The primary operational hurdle currently facing high-street brands is the management of stock-to-sales ratios. Industry analysts report, average apparel inventories are up 8 per cent compared to the same period last year, forcing retailers to implement aggressive promotional cycles earlier than anticipated. The lack of consistent footfall has left mid-market retailers in a precarious position regarding liquidity, notes Sarah Jenkins, Senior Retail Strategist. By adopting deeper discounting to move stagnant lines, brands are seeing a compression in gross margins, which complicates the funding of summer procurement. Despite these headwinds, the luxury apparel niche remains a comparative bright spot, buoyed by international tourism and resilient high-net-worth spending.
Digital integration and future market positioning
To counteract physical storefront lethargy, retailers are accelerating investment in hyper-personalized digital experiences. Data suggests, conversion rates for brands utilizing AI-driven sizing tools and augmented reality try-ons remained 15 per cent higher than traditional e-commerce platforms during the March slump. This shift indicates, while total volume is down, the opportunity lies in maximizing the value of every digital interaction. As the sector looks toward the second quarter, the focus remains on operational agility and supply chain responsiveness. Success in the upcoming months will depend on how effectively retailers can synchronize their stock levels with actual weather shifts rather than traditional calendar cycles.
BRC-KPMG Retail monitor
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) tracks UK consumer trends across fashion, electronics, and food sectors. Historically a barometer for national economic health, the monitor currently highlights a shift toward value-driven retail. Plans focus on sustainable supply chain integration to meet long-term net-zero goals despite the current volatile financial performance.
Bangladesh apparel sector targets innovation-led resilience amidst export volatility
The Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) has formally entered into a strategic partnership with the Textile Innovation Exchange (TIE) to institutionalize a culture of research and development across the national apparel landscape.
Signed on April 1, 2026, the MoU designates BKMEA as an ‘In Association Partner’ for flagship initiatives, including the Textile Innovation Expo and the Annual International Research Conference. This collaboration emerges at a critical juncture as the industry navigates a 19.35 per cent Y-o-Y decline in total RMG exports as of March 2026, highlighting an urgent need to transition from volume-based production to high-value, tech-enabled manufacturing
Strategic transition from cost to competence
Industry leaders emphasize, the historical reliance on low-cost labor and abundant natural resources is no longer a viable long-term strategy. Mohammad Hatem, President, BKMEA, noted during the signing that innovation must now serve as the sector’s core competency to maintain global competitiveness. The partnership aims to address structural inefficiencies by establishing ‘Innovation Circles’ within factories, providing a framework for disciplined problem-solving. This initiative is particularly timely as Bangladesh prepares for its graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in late 2026, an event expected to trigger shifts in preferential trade access and require higher operational transparency.
Scaling human capital for global standards
A central pillar of the agreement involves an intensive capacity-building program designed to train 600 to 800 mid-to-senior level professionals annually. These efforts focus on integrating advanced methodologies such as Lean manufacturing, IoT-driven productivity tools, and sustainable processing techniques. By fostering a workforce capable of evidence-led performance, the sector aims to mitigate the impact of rising energy costs - which have surged significantly - and meet the increasingly stringent environmental standards of European and North American buyers. This systematic approach to skill development is intended to solidify Bangladesh’s standing as a sophisticated, innovation-capable manufacturing hub.
Representing over 2,500 member factories, the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) serves as the primary trade body for the nation’s knitwear segment. While the sector currently faces contraction due to global inflationary pressures, BKMEA is pivoting toward value-added products and LEED-certified green manufacturing to secure a projected $63.5 billion national export target for the 2025–26 fiscal year.
The Lycra Company secures bio-derived feedstock to decarbonize stretch fibers
The Lycra Company has formalized a landmark technical partnership with Qore to initiate the commercial-scale production of bio-derived spandex. By utilizing QIRA, a next-generation 1,4-butanediol (BDO) sourced from renewable corn, the company aims to replace approximately 70 per cent of the petroleum-based content within its flagship fiber. This shift represents a significant milestone in chemical fiber engineering, as the new ‘Renewable Lycra’ fiber reportedly maintains the identical stretch, recovery, and thermal resistance properties of its synthetic predecessor. According to verified Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) data, the integration of this bio-based intermediate can reduce the carbon footprint of spandex production by up to 44 per cent, offering a high-performance solution for apparel brands under pressure to meet 2030 Scope 3 emission targets.
Operational scalability and global supply chain integration
A primary challenge in the bio-polymer segment has been achieving the volume required for global garment manufacturing. The Lycra Company is addressing this by leveraging Qore’s massive fermentation facility in Iowa, which is engineered to produce high-purity Bio-BDO at scale. This partnership ensures a consistent supply of renewable raw materials, allowing textile mills in Asia and Europe to incorporate sustainable stretch without retooling existing machinery. The company is providing the industry with a drop-in replacement that eliminates the trade-off between performance and planetary impact, stated a senior executive during the announcement. This initiative is particularly critical for the performance-wear and denim sectors, where elastane is a non-negotiable component for fit and durability.
Strategic market alignment and circularity objectives
The commercial rollout of renewable fibers aligns with the accelerating regulatory transition in the European Union, specifically the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation. By diversifying its raw material base, The Lycra Company is mitigating risks associated with volatile fossil fuel markets while enhancing its ESG profile. The project also serves as a precursor to the company's broader circularity roadmap, which includes the development of chemically recyclable spandex variants. Analysts suggest that this bio-based transition will allow the firm to capture a premium share of the $5.5 billion global spandex market, as retail partners increasingly prioritize traceable, lower-impact chemical inputs in their seasonal collections.
A global leader in developing innovative fiber and technology solutions for the apparel and personal care industries, the Delaware –headquartered, The Lycra Company owns iconic brands including Lycra, Coolmax and Thermolite, The firm is currently executing a $500 million sustainability transformation, focusing on bio-derived intermediates and textile-to-textile recycling to maintain its dominant market share in the premium stretch segment.
ATEXCON 2026 concludes in New Delhi
Establishing a comprehensive framework for the sector’s evolution through 2030, the 12th Asian Textile Conference (ATEXCON) concluded in New Delhi recently.
Industry leaders at the event emphasized, currently navigating a complex period of suppressed demand and fluctuating freight costs, the global textile trade must prioritize capital expenditure in high-performance manufacturing. Discussions centered on the operationalization of integrated textile parks to achieve economies of scale, with a specific focus on the man-made fiber (MMF) segment. Analysts noted, diversifying beyond traditional cotton is essential to capture a larger share of the $1.1 trillion global apparel market. The conference highlighted, Indian manufacturers are currently eyeing a $100 billion export target, requiring an estimated annual growth rate of 10 per cent in technical textile production.
Digital integration and regulatory compliance frameworks
A primary theme of the summit was the rapid adoption of digital traceability to meet emerging international mandates. With the EU Digital Product Passport (DPP) nearing implementation, the textile value chain is under pressure to provide transparent data on fiber origin and chemical usage. The industry is moving from voluntary sustainability to mandatory transparency, noted a senior delegate during the plenary session. This shift presents an opportunity for South Asian hubs to integrate blockchain-enabled tracking systems into their spinning and weaving units. However, the transition faces challenges, including the high cost of technology adoption for MSMEs and the need for a standardized global framework for carbon accounting.
Collaborative trade and sustainability as growth levers
The summit facilitated high-level dialogues on optimizing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to reduce tariff barriers in key Western markets. By aligning national quality standards with ISO and ASTM protocols, regional manufacturers aim to eliminate non-tariff barriers that currently hinder market access. The roadmap also prioritizes circular economy models, particularly chemical recycling and Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) technologies, as essential components of long-term commercial viability.
Organized by the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), ATEXCON is a premier international platform for policy advocacy and industrial networking. It brings together global stakeholders to address raw material security and trade logistics. The 2026 edition focused on scaling the $350 billion Indian textile market through MMF expansion and ESG-compliant manufacturing hubs across South Asia.
Material innovation in focus as designer Adriano Goldschmied passes away
The global apparel sector is mourning the loss of Adriano Goldschmied, Visionary Designer, widely recognized as the ‘Godfather of Denim,’ who died at the age of 82. Goldschmied’s influence transformed denim from a utilitarian workwear textile into a high-fashion asset, a shift that currently sustains a global premium denim market valued at approximately $27 billion. By founding era-defining labels such as Diesel, Replay, and AG Adriano Goldschmied, he introduced the concept of ‘premium wash’ and engineered silhouettes that prioritized textile drape and sophisticated finishing. His technical approach to denim - treating the fabric as a medium for artistic distress and tailored fit - established the structural blueprint for modern luxury casualwear.
A legacy of sustainable fiber integration and circularity
Beyond aesthetics, Goldschmied’s later career focused on addressing the environmental challenges of cotton-heavy production. He was a vocal advocate for fiber diversification, integrating Tencel, hemp, and recycled elastane to reduce the water-intensive footprint of traditional indigo dyeing. His recent collaborations emphasized the necessity of circularity, moving the industry toward a closed-loop system. Goldschmied did not just design jeans; he redefined the chemistry of the cloth, noted a senior textile strategist. This focus on material science remains a critical operational pillar for the industry as brands navigate new ESG mandates. His passing marks the end of an era of tactile craftsmanship, leaving a manufacturing legacy that balances heritage aesthetics with modern ecological responsibility.
The legacy of premium denim innovation
Goldschmied was the creative force behind several multi-billion dollar denim brands, primarily serving the European and North American luxury markets. His work pioneered the premium denim category in the 1970s and 1990s. Current industry growth plans in this segment focus on bio-based stretch fibers and waterless dyeing technologies, carrying forward his commitment to textile evolution and high-performance casual apparel.
Remove import duty on raw cotton for FY26-27; urge CAI, SIMA
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) and the Southern India Mills Association (SIMA) have intensified their call for the permanent removal of the 11 per cent import duty on raw cotton as the industry enters the FY26-27.
While a temporary exemption supported the sector through late 2025, the restoration of the 5 per cent Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and 5 per cent Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) is creating an inverted duty structure that penalizes high-end garment manufacturers. Industry data for April 2026 indicates, domestic cotton prices remain 10 per cent to 12 per cent higher than international benchmarks, largely due to a decline in domestic pressing estimates, which the CAI recently revised to 320.50 lakh bales for the 2025-26 season.
Bridging the supply-quality gap for global competitiveness
The demand for duty-free access is driven by the textile industry's need for extra-long staple (ELS) cotton and specific grades not currently produced in sufficient quantities within India.
Manufacturers argue, the 11 per cent levy acts as a barrier to fulfilling high-value export orders from the US and EU, particularly as regional competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh benefit from zero-duty regimes. Maintaining this duty restricts our ability to utilize Free Trade Agreements effectively and prevents Indian mills from functioning as global manufacturing hubs, states a senior textile analyst. The industry estimates, a permanent waiver would stabilize yarn prices and assist in recovering the $18 billion RMG export trajectory, which has faced headwinds from rising logistics and energy costs.
Mitigating risks to the $100 billion export roadmap
As the Ministry of Textiles targets a $100 billion export milestone by 2030, the availability of competitively priced raw material is a critical operational prerequisite. Analysts warn, without duty-free imports, the sector faces an increased risk of order diversion to rival manufacturing clusters. CAI emphasizes, historically, India maintained a zero-duty regime without adversely impacting domestic farmers, as imports primarily satisfy the deficit in high-quality fiber requirements. Ensuring raw material neutrality is now viewed as the primary lever for the 1,200 large-scale spinning and weaving units seeking to modernize their operations under the upcoming Bharat Tex 2026 initiatives.
Established in 1921, the Cotton Association of India is the premier body representing the interests of the entire cotton value chain, from ginners to textile mills. The association provides essential crop estimates, quality testing, and policy advocacy. It currently manages the world’s largest cotton testing network and is instrumental in aligning Indian fiber standards with global ISO and ASTM protocols to support the $350 billion national textile market goal.
Relief window for SEZ units address critical operational bottleneck: AEPC
The one-time relief window introduced by the Ministry of Finance from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027 addresses a critical operational bottleneck: underutilized production capacity caused by volatile global demand and West Asia’s geopolitical disruptions, says the Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC). This regulatory update allows Special Economic Zone (SEZ) manufacturing units to clear goods into the Domestic Tariff Area (DTA) at concessional customs duty rates, ranging from 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent, the Council adds. . The measure permits units to sell up to 30 per cent of their highest annual export turnover domestically, providing a stabilization mechanism for factories that have seen a 10 per cent to 15 per cent drop in international order books over the last six months, the Council adds.
Safeguarding value addition and domestic parity
To ensure a level playing field for non-SEZ manufacturers, the policy mandates a minimum value addition of 20 per cent on all goods cleared under this window. This requirement prevents SEZs from functioning as mere trading hubs for cheap imports, reinforcing the focus on substantive textile manufacturing. This calibrated flexibility is essential for maintaining employment continuity during a period of global trade stress, stated an AEPC representative.
Industry data for FY26 indicates, while ready-made garment (RMG) exports reached $10.08 billion between April and November, the sector remains sensitive to rising input costs. The relief window is expected to improve liquidity for approximately 1,200 manufacturing units currently navigating high inventory levels and increased logistics expenses.
Strategic alignment with national export targets
This intervention is viewed as a transitional support tool as the industry moves toward the $100 billion export target by 2030. The implementation through a faceless assessment mechanism ensures transparency while allowing firms to pivot - without losing their export-oriented status—toward India’s growing $225 billion domestic market. As manufacturing indices show a modest 1.2 per cent growth, the ability to utilize SEZ infrastructure for local supply chains provides a necessary buffer against external shocks. Analysts suggest this move will consolidate India’s position as a resilient textile hub, balancing domestic consumption with aggressive global expansion plans.
An official body representing Indian apparel exporters, facilitating global trade and policy advocacy, AEPC manages a network of over 8,000 members across major textile hubs. The council is currently driving a $100 billion export roadmap by 2030, focusing on ESG compliance and enhancing the market share of man-made fiber (MMF) garments in the US and EU.
India to insulate apparel export with RoSCTL extension
The Ministry of Textiles aims to insulate India’s apparel export sector from global supply chain volatility by extending Rebate of State and Central Taxes and Levies (RoSCTL) scheme until September 30, 2026. The Ministry aims to lock in the rebate rates between 5.5 per cent and 7 per cent of the Free on Board value for the next two years to provide the cost certainty required to secure high-volume contracts from Western retailers. This policy continuity is particularly significant as manufacturers in competing hubs like Bangladesh navigate domestic industrial unrest, positioning India as a reliable alternative for long-term sourcing.
Capitalizing on duty neutralization to drive scale
The extension addresses a fundamental requirement for the ‘made-ups’ and garment industry: the neutralization of embedded taxes that are not covered under the Goods and Services Tax framework. Industry data suggests, maintaining this liquidity allows exporters to reinvest in vertical integration and sustainable manufacturing technologies. Experts indicate, without this rebate, Indian products would face a 5 per cent to 6 per cent price disadvantage in price-sensitive markets like the EU and the US. This extension is not merely a subsidy but a vital tool for cost-competitiveness that allows exporters to match the aggressive pricing of duty-free nations, noted a senior trade consultant tracking South Asian textile hubs.
Synergy with infrastructure and sustainability goals
Beyond immediate tax relief, the RoSCTL extension integrates with the operationalization of the PM MITRA mega textile parks. This dual approach of fiscal support and infrastructure development aims to assist the sector in reaching its ambitious $100 billion export target by 2030. As global brands increase their focus on ESG compliance, the financial headroom provided by these rebates is expected to facilitate the transition toward circular production models and the adoption of traceable supply chain standards mandated by new international trade regulations.
Operational footprint and future outlook
India is a leading global supplier of cotton garments and home textiles, primarily serving the US and European retail markets. The industry is currently modernizing production facilities to increase the share of man-made fiber exports. Historically a fragmented sector, it is now consolidating to achieve economies of scale and double-digit growth.
Hyosung expands bio-based spandex production to meet rising global ESG mandates
At the Functional Fabric Fair in Portland this week, the world’s leading elastane manufacturer, Hyosung TNC provided a significant progress report on its regen Bio spandex initiative. The company is advancing the industry’s shift away from fossil-based materials by transitioning its feedstock from corn to sugarcane. This move is supported by a $1 billion investment into a fully integrated production ecosystem in Vietnam.
According to third-party Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) data, the manufacture of this sugarcane-based spandex reduces the carbon footprint by approximately 20 per cent compared to conventional options, offering brands a scalable solution to meet upcoming international sustainability reporting requirements.
Infrastructure integration to resolve scalability barriers
A primary challenge for alternative materials has historically been the gap between pilot innovation and industrial-scale availability. Hyosung is addressing this by establishing an end-to-end value chain that converts renewable sugarcane into Bio-BDO and Bio-PTMG - the core intermediates for spandex - within a single manufacturing site. This vertical integration ensures that the bio-based variant maintains the same durability, stretch, and recovery properties as petroleum-derived fibers. We are moving from commitments to action by providing a scalable system where bio-based materials become the baseline for performance apparel, states Sora Yoo, Vice President-Marketing, Hyosung TNC.
Commercial adoption and strategic market positioning
The commercial roadmap for regen Bio expects apparel utilizing these fibers to be available in retail stores by early 2027. This timeline aligns with the sector’s broader transition toward circularity, as firms prepare for mandates such as the EU Digital Product Passport. Beyond spandex, Hyosung is expanding its ‘regen’ portfolio to include 100 per cent post-consumer recycled nylon derived from discarded fishing nets, which reportedly reduces CO2 emissions by 73 per cent. By diversifying its sustainable fiber offerings, the company aims to stabilize its market position amid a complex global trade environment characterized by fluctuating raw material costs.
Hyosung TNC is the world’s largest manufacturer of spandex, commanding a significant global market share through its Creora and regen brands. Headquartered in South Korea, the firm operates an extensive production network across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. For FY2025, the company reported revenues of approximately 7.69 trillion KRW. Its current growth strategy focuses on a $1 billion investment in bio-based intermediates and sustainable textile innovations to achieve a carbon-neutral manufacturing profile.
ICRA sees apparel export recovery in FY27 as margin pressure eases, FTAs gain traction

India’s apparel export sector is moving out of a year defined by tariff-led disruption and into one shaped by market diversification, FTA-led opportunity and cautious balance-sheet repair. The latest ICRA assessment signals that FY2026 was less a year of decline than one of lower growth, margin stress and forced adaptation.
The headline number captures the strain. India’s apparel grew just 1.5 per cent year-on-year in dollar terms during the first 10 months of FY2026, a sharp moderation from the double-digit growth seen earlier. In rupee terms, however, a weaker currency boosted growth to 5.8 per cent, cushioning the financial shock for exporters with high domestic cost bases.
The drag was clearly US-led. With punitive tariff actions weighing on demand, exports to the US declined by around 6 per cent in dollar terms. Yet the slowdown was not broad-based. Increasing shipments to the UK, UAE and other non-traditional destinations prevented a deeper fall, underlining how quickly Indian suppliers have begun to rebalance their market mix.
Margin defence becomes the new growth strategy
The core disruption in FY2026 came from the US tariff overhang. Even where shipment volumes remained supported by longer-term sourcing commitments, pricing came under severe pressure as exporters absorbed part of the tariff burden through rebates and discounts. The result was a clear squeeze on profits.
What makes this period notable is not just the tariff hit itself, but the way it altered behavior. Exporters shifted from growth maximisation to order retention, preferring thinner margins over idle capacity. Indeed, this defensive pricing protected factory utilisation, but pulled sector operating margins down to multi-year lows. The phased rollback of US duties beginning February 2026 has changed the forward view materially. With tariffs expected to normalise closer to 10 per cent by mid-2026, ICRA has upgraded the sector outlook to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’. That shift reflects improving visibility on order flows as well as a broader global sourcing realignment.
Table: Financial stress now, operating recovery ahead
|
Financial indicator |
FY2025 (actual) |
FY2026 (estimate) |
FY2027 (projected) |
|
Total Export Value (USD Bn) |
$16.50 |
$16.80 |
$18.50 |
|
Growth Rate (YoY) |
10.20% |
1.80% |
10.10% |
|
Operating Margin (%) |
10.00% |
7.60% |
9.50% |
|
Interest Coverage (x) |
4.6 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
|
Current Ratio |
1.45 |
1.25 |
1.4 |
Source: ICRA Research, March 31, 2026
The financial progression shows a sector that bent but did not break. Export value still inched up from $16.5 billion to an estimated $16.8 billion in FY2026 despite the tariff shock, highlighting resilience in baseline demand and the benefit of market diversification. The real stress is on margins and credits. Operating margin drop from 10 to 7.6 per cent reflects tariff absorption, discount-led order retention and higher freight costs. Interest coverage weakening from 4.6x to 3.2x indicates how earnings pressure fed directly into debt servicing ability. The current ratio decline to 1.25 further suggests working capital tightening as receivable cycles stretched.
The FY2027 recovery path is more constructive. A projected jump to $18.5 billion in exports and margin restoration to 9.5 per cent suggests that normalised tariffs, better demand from Europe and stronger FTA-linked orders could restore operating leverage. Credit quality is also expected to improve sharply, with interest coverage rebounding to 4.7x.
Diversification trade starts paying off
Beyond the cyclical recovery, the larger story is India’s strengthening position in the global China-plus-one sourcing shift. Retailers are increasingly prioritising supply security, compliance visibility and geopolitical risk diversification over pure cost arbitrage. This is where India’s scale and ecosystem depth are beginning to matter more. The ongoing India-UK trade corridor and expected progress on EU-linked trade frameworks are creating fresh headroom for exporters, especially in categories such as winterwear, basics and value-added cotton apparel.
The Tirupur cluster offers the clearest example of this shift. Major exporters in the hub reduced US dependence significantly over the past year and redirected capacity toward the UK, Australia and Southern Hemisphere demand cycles. Even where US revenues declined, total turnover still grew because alternate markets grew faster. This reflects a deeper reset: exporters are no longer treating diversification as optional risk management but as a core revenue architecture.
Europe’s restocking cycle opens a second growth engine
The international demand backdrop is also improving selectively. Global apparel trade remains roughly $550 billion market, with the US and Europe accounting for nearly half of all imports. Europe has emerged as the brighter spot. Imports into the region are estimated to have grown 5-6 per cent year-on-year in 11 months CY2025, driven by nearly 9 per cent growth in the EU as retailers rebuilt inventories. In contrast, US import volumes declined 3-4 per cent, reinforcing the impact of tariff disincentives.
For India, this matters because Europe, including the UK, contributes a share almost equal to the US. A stronger European restocking cycle combined with FTA momentum gives Indian exporters a credible second growth engine just as US uncertainty begins to ease.
Table: Geography risk map of FY2027
|
Export destination |
Share of total (%) |
Risk factor (FY27) |
ICRA sensitivity note |
|
US |
32% |
Policy/Tariff |
High sensitivity to trade law changes. |
|
EU |
28% |
Economic Slump |
Moderate; demand linked to inflation. |
|
UAE & West Asia |
8% |
Logistics |
Critical; transit times could double. |
|
UK & Others |
32% |
Opportunity |
Low; benefits from FTA tailwinds. |
The destination mix highlights why the sector’s recovery remains opportunity-rich but risk-sensitive. The US remains the single largest swing factor, with one-third of exports still vulnerable to tariff or policy shifts. Europe offers volume support but remains tied to consumer inflation and retail replenishment cycles.
The most immediate operational risk lies in West Asia. While the direct export share to UAE and the region is 8 percent, the strategic significance is much larger because key shipping lanes run through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridors. Any disruption here could reroute cargo, extend lead times and increase working capital lock-up.
This is particularly critical because the sector’s margin recovery assumptions are narrow. A sustained rise in freight rates or shipment delays could easily shave 100 basis points off the projected FY2027 margin recovery.
Deleveraging sets up the next capex cycle
One of the more important takeaways from the ICRA outlook is the expected recovery in credit quality. Total debt to OPBDITA, which had risen to 3.3x during the tariff peak, is projected to moderate to 2.3x in FY2027 as cash flows normalise and profitability improves.
This deleveraging trend suggests exporters used FY2026 not for aggressive expansion but for liquidity preservation and balance-sheet discipline. Capex remained restrained through the year, and that caution is likely to continue until the tariff environment in the US stabilises more durably. That said, a moderate revival in investment is likely in FY2027, especially among larger compliant exporters positioning for incremental UK and EU business.
The Indian apparel exports is therefore entering a new phase. FY2026 proved the sector’s ability to protect volumes under extreme tariff stress. FY2027 will test whether that resilience can be converted into profit growth through FTAs, diversified destination strategy and supply-chain reliability. The turbulence is not over, but the sector is no longer merely surviving it, it is beginning to redesign itself around it.











