India is mulling a 10 per cent cap on the volume of cotton to be exported. The proposal is to put a 10 per cent cap on the amount of exportable cotton per year and a 10 per cent duty on the export of cotton over and above this exportable surplus.

The reasoning is that this is in line with the budget proposal to save domestic industry by building a cotton reservoir. But this move raises doubts as the country is heading for surplus stocks amid an export scenario hurt by China’s import policy.

India exports nearly 60 per cent of its cotton to China, the world’s largest importer, which has a stockpile of nearly 63 million cotton bales. Due to China’s decision to offload its substantial stock of cotton, the market demand is lower than supply. This has resulted in prices of cotton coming down.

Cotton exports from India into China declined 26.4 per cent year on year over April-October 2014 compared to a 4.3 per cent decline the year earlier. Lower global cotton prices and the relatively stable Indian rupee will keep the attractiveness of Indian cotton under pressure in the export market. India’s cotton exports to other destinations are unlikely to replace the quantum of lower trade with China.