Quite a few countries are benefiting from the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. However, it’s Vietnam that is expected to benefit the most, followed by Taiwan and Chile. Besides these three, Malaysia, Argentina, Hong Kong, Mexico, Korea, Singapore and Brazil are the other countries among the top beneficiaries. Vietnam will gain 7.9 per cent of GDP from trade diversion, followed by Taiwan (2.1 per cent of GDP), Chile (1.5 per cent), Malaysia (1.3 per cent) and Argentina (1.2 per cent).

US import substitution has benefitted Vietnam, Taiwan and Korea in electronic products; Malaysia in semiconductors; and Korea and Mexico in motor vehicle parts. China’s import substitution has led to beneficiaries in copper (Chile), soybeans (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Canada); gold (Singapore, Hong Kong and South Africa); natural gas (Malaysia, Australia); and aircraft (France and Germany).

A major risk for the US is the likely impact on the electronic products it sources from China. For India, the benefit is pegged at 0.2 per cent of 2019 GDP. Petrol, bitumen mineral, articles of cement, concrete or stone, parts and accessories from motor vehicles, taps, valves, pipe tanks carpets and other textile floor coverings are some of the products where India stands to gain.