The World Bank has forecasted continued slowdown in Cambodia's economy over the next three years because of rising local production costs, sluggish global rice prices and other headwinds. It says year-on-year growth rate of Cambodia’s gross domestic product would drop to 6.9 per cent in both 2015 and 2016 and to 6.8 per cent in 2017. A 28 per cent hike in garment workers’ minimum wage, which took effect in January, is also expected to hurt.

The re-entry of Thailand and Burma into the rice market is also expected to keep revenues from Cambodia’s rice exports down. The fiscal deficit is expected to nearly double between 2014 and 2016 as a share of GDP, to 4.9 per cent. The trade deficit is predicted to grow this near and next.

While falling global oil prices have helped to keep inflation down, this is expected to do little for most families. The World Bank’s predictions differ sharply from the forecast of the Asian Development Bank. The ADB said Cambodia’s seven per cent GDP growth rate in 2014 would rise this year and that a less tense political environment at home and rebounding economies in its main trading partners would boost tourist arrivals and garment exports.