India’s cotton production for the 2019-20 season may fall by one per cent, says the US Department of Agriculture. The decline is a result of reduced plantings in Central Maharashtra, where farmers are shifting toward soybeans as well as in Karnataka, where farmers are switching to pulses and corn. While overall plantings are expected to fall, they are happening at an accelerated rate this season in part because of the delayed monsoon. As of July 19, the cotton planted area is five per cent higher than the five-year average, with plantings especially accelerated in Rajasthan and Orissa.

At 29 million bales, the anticipated 2019-20 output is down only slightly from the 29.3 million bales forecasted earlier this year, but still about nine per cent larger than the 2018-19 crop. While the prospects of a larger crop should result in greater export outflows, Indian cotton prices are currently uncompetitive in the global market compared to other suppliers. Indian cotton prices are up on improving quality and the higher prices help ensure that domestic mills will continue to rely on at least some imported cotton. As for the crop situation next year, the highly remunerative kapas (cotton) prices during the current year and the monsoon projection would induce Indian farmers to prefer to grow more cotton.