World demand for cotton is expected to keep rising. Consumption, which has steadily increased over the last three seasons – is expected to continue rising. The prospect is of accelerating growth in demand for the fiber, seen increasing by more than 1.1 million tons next season, after an 8,80,000-ton rise in 2017-18.

Helpful factors include rising production costs of synthetic fibers and growing awareness of the environmental damage being caused by microfiber pollution. However the threats of pests and inclement weather remain concerns. This season, the world’s largest producer, India, suffered yield losses due to a pink bollworm infestation and is expected to decrease in planted area in 2018-19.

While US sowings are expected to rise this year, drought conditions will need to be monitored closely. Texas is the top US cotton-growing state. For Australia, meanwhile, the current harvest is seen as having a mixed outcome. Reports from non-irrigated fields are mostly significantly lower than their irrigated counterparts. Sowings were pegged at 4,73,000 hectares. The national average for irrigated cotton is around 10 bales per hectare. Yields on dryland cotton are much lower.

China has curtailed imports and focused on drawing down bloated state inventories. There may be changes for Brazil and some smaller markets.