India’s cotton output is likely to decline by 11 per cent this year.
There has been crop damage in major producing states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat. Almost half the country's cotton comes from these two states.

The deficient and erratic southwest monsoon this season followed by a long dry spell this winter season has impacted the standing crop. While the first cycle of cotton picking is over, the second and third cycles are likely to get impacted badly due to spoilt flower buds.

In case November rainfall is normal, cotton flowers can recover some lost yield in the third cycle, and curtail the decline in cotton output substantially this year.

Meanwhile, the benchmark variety of cotton, Shankar 6, has been trading at around Rs 13,000 a bale for quite some time now.

Total cotton output in Gujarat would stand at 8.8 million bales this year, down from 10.5 million bales the previous year. Output in Maharashtra is estimated at eight million bales this year versus 8.3 million bales last year, while that in Andhra Pradesh is forecast to decline to 1.6 million bales from 1.85 million bales.

Rising demand and lower output may trigger a sharp price rise this year which may dent textile mills’ profit margins in coming quarters.