The June edition of Cotton This Month shows, decreases in the crop size of some top cotton-producing countries — including India, Argentina and South Africa — have resulted in consumption outpacing production as the 2021/22 season comes to a close. They were closely aligned through most of the year but given these smaller-than-expected crops, consumption is expected to exceed production by about 265,000 tons.

To assess the impact of those figures on prices, the stocks-to-use ratio — which measures the available cotton stocks as a share of cotton mill use — can help quantify the relationship between cotton supply and demand. When supply is tight compared to demand, the ratio is lower. A lower stocks-to-use ratio could indicate higher prices. In contrast, when supply exceeds demand then the ratio increases putting downward pressure on cotton prices. Planted area also can have a major impact on prices.