Grasim Industries has joined the International Textile Manufacturers Federation as a corporate member.

By joining ITMF, Grasim will join associations and companies from different companies from around the world that are active in the entire textile value chain like fiber, textile, garments, home textiles, textile machinery or chemical producers as well as other organisations and companies affiliated with the textile industry. Such an exclusive exposure to such companies will provide additional insights and a unique access to international networks. On the other hand, ITMF and all ITMF members can benefit from Grasim’s expertise and experience.

Grasim, a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, produces viscose staple fiber, viscose filament yarn, advanced material, linen yarn, and fabrics. ITMF founded in 1904 is the international forum of the global textile value chain from fiber to finished products. Its members are from textile and apparel-producing countries representing approximately 90 per cent of global production.

Today, increasingly, businesses will need to go beyond the ordinary and serve as catalysts for driving system level change to build solutions that meet the exacting demands of the emerging world. This requires them to work closely with their partners and co-create smart solutions that meet these demands.

Gokaldas Exports’ revenue has grown by 15 per cent over the last five years. There has been a 46 per cent profit after tax compound annual growth rate over this period. The average realization has clocked a18 per cent CAGR over this period.

The acquisition of high-value high-margin customers has gone up from 15 per cent in fiscal ’18 it to 35 per cent in fiscal ’22. The customer base has widened, footprint in the US, its key market, has expanded along with anaugmented share in outerwear (high-value business). The company is well poised to benefit from multiple industry tailwinds, which include the continuing shift of global sourcing away from China,supplier consolidation towards efficient and well-capitalised players, supply-side instabilities in countries like China, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, a strengthening dollar, the announcement of production linked incentive, and the signing of free trade agreements with key markets.

Gokaldas supplies apparels to leading and prominent global brands across six continents but encountered a challenging business environmentin fiscal 2022. The Delta wave in the first quarter, the Omicron wave in the early fourth quarter and logistics disruptions throughout the year were testing times. High raw material prices for both cotton and manmade fiber products, the war in Europe and inflation in key markets were additional headwinds.

Milano 1984 has acquired a majority stake in Gas. So the denim brand has a new name, Gas Milano 1984.

The goal is to double revenues in three years. Gas was a menswear-driven brand but the new owners are eager to achieve a more balanced split, with womenswear growing from the current 20 percent to 40 percent.

The brand built its success in the ’90s and the following decade when wholesale was still the driving force. Although there is no plan to shift that model entirely, the brand will reduce its stock keeping units, drop four collections a year and inject newness via capsule collections now and then. A digital strategy will be instituted, compensating for the lost online sales over the past few years.Among the next steps, a digital marketing team will be built to grow e-commerce operations and provide e-tailers with forward-looking services.

Gas Milano 1984 counts around 500 stockists, mainly based in Italy. And Italy will remain the primary focus together with Southern Europe and German-speaking countries, where denim consumption is among the highest.Until 15 years ago, Gas had a strong footprint in Europe and even in Japan. A dedicated strategy for the US and Canada will follow.

The Indian e-retail industry is expected to grow by 30 per cent annually. So says management consulting firm Bain. India might soon replace the US as the country with the second-largest online shopper base after China.

Some 180 million Indians shopped online in 2021. This number is estimated to grow to 400 million by 2027.An estimated 50 million online shoppers were added in 2021 alone. Of these, over 60 per cent were from Tier III cities and beyond. Going forward, a growing segment of online shoppers will also come from digital-native individuals under 25.

E-commerce in India is characterised by shopper micro-segments, novel business models, and use of technology.The recently concluded phase of online festive sales saw the adoption of novel business models such as social-led commerce, e-commerce through video, or live streaming from horizontal platforms. Although these channels are in their early days, they will serve as platforms to onboard and retain consumers in the long run.

Social and video-led live commerce are yet to gain traction in India, though they are hugely popular in China and Southeast Asian markets. Reseller models using social commerce help bridge the trust gap for consumers from Tier II and III cities.

Since the start of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects including rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the likelihood of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a scientific analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.

Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 are downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts don't point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that a minimum of two developments—which have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a big weakening of global growth in the previous year, as went on recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.

Is Europe already in recession?

Almost six months after Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine, the extent of the damage to the EU economy is becoming clear. The red lights of recession are flashing. The Eurozone’s big four economies – Germany, France, Italy and Spain – have all had their growth forecasts for 2023 downgraded by the International Monetary Fund , as a mixture of the war and higher interest rates put a brake on activity. In the UK, inflation is above 10% for the first time in 4 decades as households struggle with rising energy bills. The Bank of England forecasts inflation will peak above 13% in autumn after a fresh increase in energy costs, while the economy will fall under a lengthy recession. “In the near term we expect a recession in Europe within the winter of 2022-23 as a result of energy shortages and sustained elevated inflation”, the EIU said. “The winter of 2023-24 also will be challenging. We expect high inflation and sluggish growth until at least 2024.”

US seems resilient

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the economy was only “in a period of transition” during a White House press briefing on July 24. “I would be amazed if they might declare this period to be a recession, whether or not it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” Yellen said, adding that the economy had rapidly grown 5.5% last year. “We have a really strong labor market. Once you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that's not a recession.” However, middle income households have seen the effect of uncurbed recession, shooting up their household expenses by close to 8%. Predictions cite that the US could also be able to stave of a recession until 2024.

What lies ahead for the apparel sector?

The global apparel industry is still working hard to resolve the supply chain issues caused by the pandemic, but the challenge is intensifying with soaring energy prices and record-breaking inflation levels, to not mention a threat of ‘recession’. Industries round the world are adapting cost cutting techniques to survive the effect of recession. The Indian apparel industry is gearing up itself to survive the upcoming recession's onslaught as global recession is knocking at the doors of the Indian textile industry. The impact of recession is clearly visible on new orders received by the Indian exporters. Industry bodies and businessmen said export orders of clothes and home textiles from the US and Europe have declined by about 15-20 per cent, as western retail brands face slow demand. Apparel Export Promotion Council Chairman Narendra Goenka had earlier said that apparel export orders are estimated to decrease by about 15-20 per cent.

August 2022 recorded the lowest global manufacturing PMI in the last 26 months, standing at 51.1. China, Brazil, Spain, and Australia did register a minor growth in production but the US, Japan, the UK and EU witnessed shrinkage. Vietnamese exporters, major international players, are facing between 20 to 25% increase in their production cost as raw material and oil prices keep rising. Another export market hit is Bangladesh, with exporters struggling to cut production cost, deal with USD shortages to buy material and a sharp drop of orders as well as postponement of existing orders.

All signs indicate a recession is well on its way and will severely affect businesses and economies that are prioritized on garment exports.

The prospect of Myanmar continuing to be an apparel-sourcing base for many big global brands has been an intense topic of debate since the military coup in 2021.The labor-intensive garment segment is one of Myanmar’s largest employment segments that keeps the country going and accounts for around 30% of the country’s total exports in 2021. However, the growing concerns about the dismal working conditions in Myanmar factories and labor abuses which have worsened under military rule have led to many Western retailers being divided as to whether they will continue trade or not.

Global retailers cite abuse of human rights for exiting

The renowned low-priced fast-fashion European retailer Primark, which sources garments such as raincoats and parkas from around 25 factories in Myanmar, will be exiting soon as it is finding it impossible to ensure the human rights and safety of its workers after the coup which has left the country in turmoil. Primark’s decision follows the departure of other European brands, including Aldi South Group, C&A, and even the giant general retailer of Tesco. Over the past 20 months, some others too, including Norwegian telecommunications firm Telenor ASA and oil-and-gas companies Total Energies SE and Chevron Corp. Aldi South, which also sells products such as cargo shorts and running shoes, have decided to exit. Others such as the European brand along with Tesco have said that political developments and advice from global unions have led to their decision for exiting. Myanmar laborers have no scope to voice grievances since the political leaders stifle democratic institutions, have arrested union leaders and threatened workers' organizations who are seeking to provide human rights.

Others stay on to help workers earn a livelihood

While some global retailers are leaving due to labor abuse issues, others are staying on to take advantage of Myanmar’s low wages for themselves while helping the lower-income bracket workers to preserve their jobs amid political turmoil. Companies such as H&M, Zara-owner Inditex, and Uniqlo-parent Fast Retailing Company are staying on with the premise that many workers in Myanmar depend on international companies for their livelihood.

“If they stop buying, the worst affected will be laborers from the garment industry,” said Ye Naing Win, general secretary of the Cooperative Committee of Trade Unions, a Myanmar labor organization. The Ethical Trading Initiative report estimates that 320,000 workers would lose employment and hit poverty levels or have a drastically reduced income if European buyers withdraw. It didn’t take a position on whether brands should stay or go.

Although some of the big western retail brands stopped sourcing garments after the coup and relocated to other countries like Bangladesh and India, they have again restored purchases in the post-pandemic period. According to United Nations trade statistics, apparel exports to the European Union, the U.S., and Japan in the first half of 2022 were up 29% from the same period last year and around 12% higher than in 2020, which was the year before the coup, However, this quick recovery is in stark contrast to the broader Myanmar economy, which is 13% smaller than it was in 2019, With Myanmar’s outlook as an apparel sourcing base remaining uncertain, it is time that India uses this opportunity to its advantage, as the Western retailers are looking out for other alternatives in Asia.

Sunil Patwari is chairman of Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council (Texprocil). Patwari is a chartered accountant and an alumnus of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. He is the managing director of Nagreeka Exports.

Texprocil, an apex export promotion body, provides assistance to Indian exporters of cotton textiles as well as supports importers/international buyers sourcing these products from India. Texprocil has completed 68 years. A commemorative function was held at its head office in Mumbai in October2022. Seminars and presentations on topics like sustainability, circularity and traceability were held in the hybrid format during which speakers from India as well as overseas participated. Texprocil released its new brochure highlighting the latest product offerings in cotton textile products that conform to sustainability and circularity norms as per international standards. The council has already launched the General Certificate of Conformity (GCC) program along with Control Union for the Traceability of Indian Farm Cotton. More than 50 companies have already registered as members of this program.

Last year was full of challenges as well as opportunities for the Indian textile and clothing industry. Exports of cotton textiles (including cotton) grew by 54 per cent while overall textile andclothing exports from India grew by 40 per cent in the financial year 2021-2022.

Imports of cheaper cotton garments from China may impact the entire textile value chain of India. Traders want quick action to protect the domestic industry, trade, and farmers.

Recycled yarn prices have remained stable. It is mainly used in home furnishing and to make coarse fabrics. Demand for recycled yarn is yet to pick up as there were no activities on the export front. Exporters are struggling to get new orders due to the economic slowdown in foreign markets. The ban on coal-based dyeing units in Panipat has been relaxed till the end of December this year, thus recycled yarn supply remained stable in the market.North India’s cotton yarn market witnessed a mixed trend. Prices remained stable in Delhi, while Ludhiana noted a fall of Rs5 per kg due to imports of cheaper cotton garments in India. The cotton yarn market is not getting support despite an improvement in cotton prices.However mills are making efforts to increase yarn prices.

North India’s cotton prices increased due to the low crop estimate and cloudy weather. North India’s cotton production estimate for the new marketing season has been lowered by around ten lakh bales. The region comprises Punjab, Haryana, upper Rajasthan and lower Rajasthan.

Turkey has a target of becoming one of the top three textile exporting countries in the world.

The country is already one of the top five textile exporting countries and overtook countries like South Korea and Italy to claim the fifth spot.The industry has increased its share in global textile exports to an all-time-high of three percent. Turkish textile companies are exporting their products to more than 200 countries.

Turkish suppliers want to be recognised not only for their manufacturing but also for their in-house brands.Turkey is well known for near-shore manufacturing capabilities that are of high quality, The European Union, UK, US, and the Middle East and Gulf countries are Turkey’s biggest clothing export markets. Europe accounts for 65 per cent of Turkey’s clothing exports. Other big customers are Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France and the US. Turkey’s proximity to Europe means that retailers and brands receive orders in less time than locations such as Bangladesh and China.

The average Turkish lead time is between 45 and 60 days. By contrast, clothing orders from Bangladesh can take between 90 and 120 days. Most suppliers in Turkey have their own design team. Investments in digitalisation have helped to reduce travel, cost of making samples and enabled getting approvals online.

Chinese startup Sewingtech develops robots to automate garment production.

Sewingtech is focusing on the labor shortage in the textile and apparel industry with the aim of improving efficiency. Using these robots, even an ordinary sewing worker with no expertise can operate two machines at the same time so production efficiency will be at least doubled.

Robots are already employed in the labor-intensive sector to make garments, but their use has been limited to simple operations such as laser cutting machines and electric sewing machines.Fabrics can easily stretch or crease. In addition, finishing products -- such as button sewing and positioning of buttonholes -- requires a fair amount of skill.Automated sewing robots can improve production, from fabric treatment to sewing. Some 1,70,000 apparel makers employ 8.26 million workers in China, of which sewing workers make up 60 per cent of the production workforce.

China's textile and apparel industry is in rapid decline as many production orders have been shifted to southeast Asia. In addition, China’s sewing factories are still dependent on skilled workers. But training and mentoring them is not easy, and workers' rising salaries are squeezing company profits.China’s strength lies in its light industry supply chains, with automation becoming increasingly important if the country is to remain competitive in the global garment industry.