According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee’s (ICAC) February update of cotton conditions, the global cotton trade will grow by 2 percent in the 2019-20 season, to reach 9.4 million tonne. China will remain the world’s top importer at 1.8 million tonne, but that would represent a year-over-year decline of 14 percent

Production is expected to decline in some major producing countries, with Turkey revised downward to 815,000 tonne and Pakistan to 1.35 million tonne. As a result, imports will increase for both countries to 818,000 tonne and 967,000 tonne, respectively

Latin American countries should meet some of that additional demand. Brazil’s production is expected to remain high at 2.76 million tonne and exports are expected to grow 19 percent to 1.7 million tonne. Argentina is also forecast to increase its production, to 358,000 tonne, posting a gain of 39 percent, while imports are expected to increase by 57 percent to 186,000 tons. The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report forecast U.S. production to be 20.1 million bales in the current season compared to 18.4 million bales in 2018-2019.

USDA expects U.S. exports to be unchanged at 16.5 million bales for the season, which represents the second-highest volume on record. Stability in the export forecast caused each of the four consecutive decreases in the U.S. production forecast, representing a decrease of 2.3 million bales since August, to result in four parallel decreases in ending stocks.

The current projected increase in U.S. ending stocks of 11 percent, or 550,000 bales, has dropped from a forecast 48 percent gain to 2.4 million bales in August.