World cotton production in 2015-16 is expected to be 10 per cent below the previous year’s levels. Global harvested area in 2015-16 is expected to be 8 per cent below 2014-15, the lowest since 2009-10. For China, 2015-16 cotton production is forecast at 16 per cent below 2014-15 and the lowest crop estimate since 2003-04. The smaller crop stems from reduced incentives to plant cotton nationally and lower Xinjiang yields resulting from adverse weather. For Pakistan, 2015-16 production is projected at 10 per cent below the previous season, as pest problems are reported to have reduced the cotton crop.

For India, the world’s leading producer in 2015-16, production is forecast at 29 million bales, 5,00,000 bales below last season lower area and a higher yield will keep India’s crop near the five-year average.

Global cotton mill use is forecast to rise less than two per cent in 2015-16. Despite a fourth consecutive annual increase, cotton continues to face strong price competition from manmade fibers; the battle for fiber share in many apparel products is expected to limit cotton mill use growth once again in 2015-16.

While cotton consumption improves slightly in 2015-16, cotton trade is forecast to decline for the third consecutive season.