World cotton output in 2015-16 is forecast at 109 million bales, 2.5 million bales below last month's projection and 10 million bales below 2014-15. Global cotton area in 2015-16 is seven per cent below 2014-15. The 2015-16 production is projected below consumption and would be the smallest crop since 2009-10. For India, which is expected to be the largest producing country, cotton crop is projected at 29 million bales in 2015-16, about two per cent below last season’s 29.5 million bales. With a normal monsoon this season, a seven per cent reduction in area is partially offset by a higher yield expectation.

In China, production is forecast at 26 million bales in, four million bales below last season, with fewer incentives to plant cotton resulting in a reduced area of nearly 18 per cent in 2015-16.

Pakistan's crop is forecast is at 10.2 million bales, nearly four per cent below 2014-15, while area is expected to rise two per cent, with reduction in yield, reducing Pakistan’s production by 400,000 bales in 2015-16. Brazil’s crop is forecasted to remain the same in 2015-16 at seven million bales, as area and yield are projected to equal that of 2014-15. However, India’s exports in 2015-16 are expected to expand significantly.