As per latest India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) report, cotton prices in India are expected to remain healthy in FY22 with largely stable production. However, domestic stock-to-use ratio may decline to 73 per cent for the season ending July 2021, says the report. The US Department of Agriculture – Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) also expects stock to use ratio to decline to 60 per cent on likely incremental consumption levels during the next cotton season ending July 2022 against flattish production, said Ind-Ra in the April 2021 edition of its credit news digest on India’s textile sector.

USDA-FAS expects domestic crop to increase 2 per cent YoY in the next season commencing October 2021 while consumption is slated to increase by 6-8 per cent YoY, leading to a reduction in ending stocks. The marginal rise in production is despite an expected lower area under cultivation for the next season, albeit supported by a normal monsoon and increasing yield by 5 per cent to 497 kg per hectare. Furthermore, USDA-FAS expects cotton exports to increase by 0.5 million bales (480lb) to 6 million bales in the next cotton season, supported by lower domestic cotton prices.

The gross margins of cotton yarn prices are expected to remain healthy for spinners on the back of a supportive export demand coupled with a gradual improvement in domestic consumption levels. Furthermore, issues such as Xinjiang cotton could continue to support India’s healthy export levels, despite high cotton prices.