India’s merchandise exports from April to November 2019 were down by about 1.99 per cent. Fortunately, the order book position of Indian exporters is very encouraging. The faint volatility in the currency has also been a positive factor. Liquidity is also improving though it can get better. Infrastructure improvement and initiatives on the logistics front will impart further competitiveness to India’s exports. If the global situation improves, which is likely in the first half of 2020, India can look for a 15 per cent growth in exports during the next financial year.

However, Indian exports need to be aligned with the changing import patterns of the global economy. Half of the global imports today are accounted for by electrical and electronic products, automobiles, machinery, petroleum products and plastic products. Unfortunately, the share of such products in Indian exports is less than 33 per cent though petroleum products account for roughly half of it. India’s global share in such products is much less than one per cent. With the R&D advantage and the professional manpower at its disposal, concentrating on sectors where global trade is likely to rise further will yield benefits for India. It is estimated that FDI can help in expanding India’s share in global high technology imports to about two per cent in the next three years.