India’s cotton exports this year may fall short of estimates. Export enquiries are poor as Indian cotton is more expensive compared with world cotton prices.

The season started with very poor opening stock. Arrivals are not picking up as expected and domestic mills are gradually increasing capacity utilization. Cotton arrivals in November usually surpass 1.5 lakh bales a day. At present, it is at 1.3 lakh bales a day. In several areas, sowing and harvesting have been delayed. Further, farmers are waiting for prices to improve. Prices are down 35 per cent already. So farmers are not selling cotton. But there are no signs that prices would improve either.

Exports this season are expected to be about 30 lakh bales. Since October only 50,000 bales were exported compared to seven lakh bales last year. Another major reason for tepid demand for cotton is the slowdown across the textile supply chain globally. Almost 50 per cent of Indian cotton exports are to Bangladesh. But there is no demand from Bangladesh. A spinner in Bangladesh is able to get west African or US cotton at a relatively lower price. At this rate, Indian exports of raw cotton will probably only touch 25 lakh bales this season. It all depends on the global market for textiles.