In the 2024-25 season ending in September 2025, India's cotton imports are projected to more than double to 3.3 million bales (each weighing 170 kg), as per revised import estimates by the Cotton Association of India (CAI). As per this report, this rise will be caused by a further decline in the domestic cotton crop production.

In the previous season, India had imported 1.52 million bales, the report indicates. Approximately 2.5 million bales had arrived at Indian ports by the end of March 2025, it adds.

This upward adjustment in import projections is based on expectations of lower-than-anticipated domestic production, even though consumption is expected to remain steady.

Anticipating a further contraction in the domestic cotton crop, the trade body has lowered its production forecast by 400,000 bales to 29.13 million bales (of 170 kg each), primarily due to reduced output in Maharashtra. Previously, the CAI had projected an output of 29.53 million bales. This revised lower projection is based on information received from state member associations as of the end of March, states Atul Ganatra, President, CAI.

The decline in the production forecast is attributed to lower output in Maharashtra, where production is now expected to decrease by 500,000 bales compared to earlier estimates. In contrast, Telangana's output is projected to be higher by 100,000 bales.

As per CAI estimates, until March-end, total cotton supply including imports, will be 30.683 million bales. This would include 2.5 million bales of imports (each weighing 170 kg) and the opening stock of 3.019 million bales.

For the 2024-25 season ending in September 2025, the CAI has maintained its consumption estimate at 31.5 million bales, the same as the previous forecast. Consumption up to the end of March is estimated at 17 million bales. Exports by March 31, 2025 are estimated at 900,000 bales.

Stocks at the end of March are estimated at 12.783 million bales, including 2.7 million bales held by mills and the remaining 10.083 million bales held by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), the Maharashtra Federation, and traders.

Cotton exports for the 2024-25 season are projected to decline by 1.236 million bales to 1.6 million bales, compared to the previous year's 2.836 million bales, according to the trade body.

The closing stock for the 2024-25 season at the end of September 2025 is estimated to be lower at 2.349 million bales, compared to 3.019 million bales at the same time last year.