Cotton output in India is set to surge after heavy rains. In Gujarat, the top cotton producing state, rainfall was more than 40 per cent higher than the long-term average from June to September, while in Maharashtra, the second largest, rain was 30 per cent above normal. Planted area also increased to 12.77 million hectares from 12.1 million a year earlier. The country’s cotton exports may climb to five million bales this year. Sales to China could advance to as much as 1.5 million bales from 1.2 million a year earlier. Rising shipments from the country will intensify competition among global exporters as they struggle to grab a bigger share of the Chinese market. Since India is facing increased competition in almost all markets, incentives will make exports attractive.

India is the world’s largest cotton producer. Damage from excess rain in some areas may be offset by higher yields. The crop may be 15 per cent higher than the output a year earlier. But a higher supply will depress world prices, hurting farmer incomes and benefiting textile manufacturers. India will be adding to global supply at a time when prices are near their weakest in more than three years.