The global economy is expected to grow at a steady pace of around three per cent in 2019 and 2020. Risks include escalation of trade policy disputes, financial instabilities linked to elevated levels of debt and rising climate risks.

Growth in East Asia is projected to be moderate 5.8 per cent in 2018 to 5.6 per cent in 2019 and 5.5 per cent in 2020. Private consumption will remain the key driver of growth, supported by healthy job creation, rising incomes and moderate inflationary pressures. In most countries, infrastructure investment is also expected to remain strong as they focus on expanding productive capacity and easing structural bottlenecks. The region’s export growth, however, is likely to slow, amid a softening of the global electronics cycle and elevated trade tensions.

In China, growth is projected to remain solid, but will moderate from 6.6 per cent in 2018 to 6.3 per cent in 2019. The imposition of tariffs by the United States will dampen exports, while ongoing economic rebalancing measures will weigh on industrial sectors with excess capacity. The Indian economy is expected to expand by 7.6 per cent and 7.4 per cent in 2019 and 2020, respectively, underpinned by robust private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal stance and benefits from previous reforms.