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Cotton yarn price trend depends on cotton auction policy

Cotton yarn price have increased a lot indicating that it has further upward momentum in short run. Price increment of cotton and cotton yarn was largely consistent recently, and cost stimulus to cotton yarn price has weakened unless cotton price surges again later. Spot supply of cotton is supposed to remain tight in short run if sales volume of reserved cotton is not raised and the time is not prolonged, which may push up cotton price. Therefore, cotton yarn price still has upward chance. However, if sales volume of reserved cotton is increased and the auction is extended, cotton supply tightness is expected to ease and cotton price may decline, which will weigh on cotton yarn price.

Profit of cotton yarn mills have improved after price increased recently, and profit margins enlarge. In view of spot profit, most cotton yarn plants are around cost line. Thus, spinners may have weaker support to revise up price.

Cotton yarn stocks are not high, especially carded 21S-40S. Price of cotton yarns with tight supply may be revised up, but price upward momentum of medium-to-high count cotton yarn is supposed to be weaker than that for medium-to-low count ones. Besides, short supply of imported cotton yarn made supply tightness of Chinese 21-40S hard to improve in short run, so price of Chinese 21S-40S is likely to rise further. Meanwhile, most cotton yarn mills still expect price of yarn to rise further in later period.

 
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