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China-US trade war to affect Vietnam in 3 years

As per a new report by the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), it will take about three years for the US-China trade war to take effect on Vietnamese economy. The report also forecasts, the war can cause Vietnam’s GDP growth to lose 0.03 and 0.09 percentage points in 2019 and 2020, respectively, before reaching its peak of 0.12 percentage points in 2021. In the following years, the effect would fade gradually.

Vietnam’s economy until 2017 stood at $220 billion. Given the 6.8 per cent growth (expected) this year, the scale could be $235 billion. With supposed GDP’s growth of 6.5 per cent on average within the next five years, Vietnam economic value would reach $302 billion. Also, the US slaps 25 per cent tariffs on imports worth $34 billion from China would cause an annual loss of VND6,000 billion (US$258 million) for the Vietnamese economy during 2018-2020.

 

 
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