The tussle between Cotton Association of India, or CAI and USDA has intensified over who is the more accurate forecaster for the fibre in the world’s largest producer.

USDA says it includes bales, such as those undelivered by farmers during the pandemic, that the Indian group doesn’t incorporate, and doesn’t make adjustments for what may be seen as good or bad for producers.

According to the USDA’s estimate in August, cotton stockpiles in India reached 19.2 million US bales (217.7 kg each) by the end of July. However, the CAI recently put the nation’s inventories at just 11.2 million US bales at the end of the same month.

Stephen MacDonald, Chairman of the USDA’s cotton estimates committee, said because of the pandemic, state-run Cotton Corp of India may no longer be holding an earlier estimated 13 million Indian bales (of 170 kg each), but that cotton is still in India and has neither been consumed nor exported.

Atul Ganatra, CAI President, said the group’s inventory estimate includes fibre held by farmers and government agencies, as well as the Cotton Corp of India. The USDA has historically assumed considerably more storage space for cotton in India than India says exists, said OA Cleveland, professor emeritus, agricultural economics, at Mississippi State University, who’s studied the market for more than four decades.