Brazilian cotton is on a bullish run, threatening to dethrone the US as the world's leading exporter. According to a report from the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA), fueled by a booming surplus and declining US supply, Brazil is gearing up for a record-breaking season that could rewrite the global cotton trade landscape.

At the heart of Brazil's surge lies a massive surplus. Delays in soybean sowing have expanded the country’s cotton cultivation by nearly 5 per cent, driving production towards its second-highest level ever, This, coupled with ample initial stocks and imports, creates a domestic cotton mountain reaching a historic 5.2 million tons by 2024, as per the forecasts by CONAB, the Brazilian National Supply Company.

While domestic consumption is also expected to climb - marking its highest level in a decade - it's the export potential that truly shines. As per the forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil is poised to ship out a staggering 2.5 million tonne of cotton in 2024, a 73 per cent jump from the previous season and just shy of the US total. This phenomenal growth could briefly give Brazil the world's top exporter crown depending on monthly shipment volumes.

Despite the rosy outlook, challenges remain. Brazil's productivity per hectare dipped slightly, and volatile global markets could bring unforeseen hurdles. Nevertheless, Brazil's focus on sustainable practices, boasting the world's largest supply of "Better Cotton," adds resilience and market appeal.