Cotton prices in India are likely to remain subdued over the third quarter of the current fiscal.

There has been an increase in cotton production by almost 12 per cent in the current 2022-2023 domestic season. The higher production of cotton is supported by a higher area under cultivation. Fresh arrivals of cotton have started in Gujarat and other cotton growing states. But with domestic as well as global consumption likely to be lower than in the previous season, a supply surplus is expected which is likely weigh down upon prices.

Though the spread between Indian cotton and international cotton prices has reduced considerably, Indian cotton has continued to be more expensive than international cotton. Spinning mills across India are expecting and waiting for a further fall in cotton prices.

In order to compete in the international cotton yarn market, local mills need to source rawmaterial at prevailing international prices as out of India’s total production of cotton yarn, 40 per cent is being exported. Higher cotton production could cool domestic prices and allow spinners to regain some export competitiveness but international cotton prices could fall on slowing yarn demand from Pakistan and Vietnam amid stable global production.

Cotton prices would be determined upon holding capacity of farmers and export as well as domestic textile industry demand in coming days.

Bangladesh expects a 20 per cent fall in apparel exports for October 2022. The country’s apparel exports fell seven per cent in September 2022. Already in the first 20 days of October 2022 Bangladesh’s garment exports fell by 18 per cent.

Among the reasons are the war-related crisis, the global economic turmoil, and a record inflation affecting retail businesses.A number of global brands are suffering from a decline in sales and unsold stocks, compelling many to halt current orders and production at the manufacturers’ end.

Domestic issues like power rationing, load shedding and a severe gas crisis have also impacted the sector.The downtrend is expected to continue for the coming months as the global retail market is disrupted by many challenges like the anticipated recession in the global economy, which is halting retail sales and demand for clothing.

Rising fuel prices and inflation have cut consumers’ purchasing power in European countries and decreased the demand for clothing products.The inflation rate in the European Union (EU), the largest destination of Bangladesh’s apparel items, reached nine per cent in September 2022. European shoppers are expected to reduce their Christmas purchases by up to 22 per cent, which will disallow the top brands, importers of Bangladesh’s apparel products, to clear their whole stock.

Countries like China, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are facing a fall in home textile exports.

China’s home textile exports slipped in the first quarter of this year but improved in the following quarters. They came down to $10.062 billion in the first quarter of 2022 from $12.031 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and moved up again to $10.292 billion in the second quarter and $10.681 billion in the third quarter of 2022. The exports amounted to $10.941 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

India’s exports of home textiles declined to $2.189 billion in the first quarter of 2022 from $2.333 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. The export further slipped to $2.026 billion in the second quarter of 2022. The shipment was $2.153 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

Home textile exports from Sri Lanka came down to $32.516 million in the first quarter, $31.501 million in the second quarter and $27.239 million in the third quarter of 2022 from $34.013 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $35,993 million in the first quarter of 2021.

Pakistan’s exports fell to $1.465 billion in the first quarter of 2022 from $1.575 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. The shipment stood at $1.262 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

In a recently concluded roundtable discussion hosted by a leading ETRetail in association Salesforce, the conclusion was that omni-channel presence is no longer a luxury but a must have for brands to be relevant. Like the rest of the world, the business of retail has undergone a sea change and India in particular has witnessed this change all of a sudden, leaving brands to scramble and adapt as quickly as possible. At the core of the change is the buying behavior of Indian consumers who seek to engage with their preferred brands from just about anywhere, giving rise to the concept of omni-channel presence. Leading the omni-channel presence is online touch point where 43.5 per cent of mobile phone users in India are on their smartphones, the most used device for gathering product information and in a large number of instances, making the purchase.

Phenomenal retail growth

Pallab Roy, Partner, Business Consulting KPMG- India who moderated the session, pointed out as the world’s fifth largest economy, a position that India earned recently, the potential for retail is unprecedented. He expects India’s retail to reach $1.7 trillion by 2029. In terms of digital clout, India ranks the second largest nation of Internet users and the third largest nation of e-commerce purchasers. About 25-30 per cent of retail consumers shop via their smartphones. This combination clearly spells out how brands need to dominate the digital space to communicate, reach out and capture consumers and their wallets.

Roy also stated this scenario was not only conducive for retail brands to reach out to a larger populations but also imperative to be able to sustain themselves in the long run. With impressive growth figures, e-commerce would become perhaps the largest point of sale in the near future. However, he advised brands need to be omni-channel driven rather than just focus on online presence.

A case in point is Godrej Interio, the reputable furniture company. As Subodh Mehta, Senior Vice President, Godrej Interio who participated in the roundtable stated, whilst Godrej Interio has a strong physical presence as consumers still prefer to inspect furniture in real environments, they noticed the changing times and have established their online presence as well which increased their sales immediately – in many cases decisions to purchase were made online and the actual purchase was made in store. Whilst the Indian consumer is very comfortable with a brand’s channel plurality, they usually focus on the channel that suits them best or is the most convenient and then remain loyal to these channels. Moreover, the nature of the product dictates the channel preference.

Talking about brand Suta’s retail transformation journey, Taniya Biswas, Co-Founder explained retail businesses cannot rely on a single channel to survive in this highly competitive market. As a brand Suta aims to provide 365 days of work to weavers which is why, they had to venture into multiple marketplaces, both physical and virtual so to ensure business continuity even if their performance on one channel is substandard.

Talking about the major challenges retailers face in omnichannel ecosystem, Saurabh Gupta, Founder and Director, Kalki Fashions said, none of the customers are purely offline or online shoppers. Therefore, to cater to their needs brands must ensure accessibility across various touchpoints. However, a major challenge that retail brands come across in the omnichannel model is providing 100 per cent inventory visibility to customers across all channels, which happens to be imperative to ensure customer retention.”

Changes in customer journey and experience

Earlier, the vast majority of retail was discount driven but nowadays convenience, availability and choices are the main drivers as consumers are willing to pay full price to enjoy these benefits. Creating a superior customer experience through the right mix of omni-channel, logistics, inventories and customer service will make brands establish themselves firmly in the retail firmament. Interestingly, as digital natives Gen Z enter the retail market place, they are driving the digital channels to provide their complete brand experience which should ideally end in online purchases. This insight is particularly useful as brands can then segment their consumers and focus on communicating and driving traffic towards sales by using their multiple channels, prioritizing each channel for the best suited consumer segment.

On Gen-Z prompting retail brands to go digital, Almona Bhatia, Chief Strategy Officer- Luxury, Tata Cliq said, customer mindset has shifted considerably over years. With Gen Z streaming into the customer pool, organizations are increasingly inclined towards e-commerce since the young generation that is digitally native prefers online over offline.

Explaining why more and more consumers are shifting to digital retail, Devangi Parekh, Director, Aza Fashions highlighted, customer taste has dramatically changed over the last few years. They are comfortable with spending large amounts of money online provided they get adequate information and quality service. Modern-day consumers are digitally present and the convenience factor of e-commerce is an added incentive for them to move to online retail.

Importance of technology in retail journey

Integrating technology in the retail journey has become imperative felt experts, as Nishant Kalra, Regional Vice President-Digital Experience, Salesforce India, said, consumers expect to get the same hyper-personalized shopping experience across all touchpoints, whether physical or virtual. Hence, Salesforce India engages with numerous brands and technology solution providers to homogenize customer journeys across multiple channels, be it online, offline, or even meta-based. He said, technology has made this milestone achievable for retail brands. However, maintaining equilibrium between technology integration and human interaction is imperative to augment service quality as well as customer experience.

Revenues of Indian apparel exporters are expected to have moderated sequentially due to a slowdown in demand amid concerns about recession in key markets. So says rating agency ICRA.

The sector has reported healthy revenue growth and profitability in the past four quarters, surpassing pre-Covid levels. While high realisations are expected to support revenue growth for the year, higher raw material and logistics costs could dent apparel exporters’ profitability for the year.

For fiscal year 2023, a topline growth of 15 per centis expected for apparel exporters with a slight moderation in margins by 100 bps to 300 bps amid sustained high raw material prices for a large part of the year and higher logistics costs.While raw material cost pressures remain, the stability of export incentives together with the benefits of increased scale helped companies maintain profitability so far.

Overall, the moderation in profits in fiscal 2023 is expected to adversely impact the coverage metrics of apparel players.Even as concerns about growth are increasing due to geopolitical tensions and sustained inflationary pressures, the demand trend has remained encouraging so far. In fiscal 2022, Indian apparel exporters’ turnover rose by 41 per cent and a 300bps improvement in operating margins, following a 16 per cent revenue decline in fiscal 2021.

Even though the latest Euromonitor International Industry Forecast statistics point towards a mere 4 per cent rise in global sales of personal accessories by the end of 2022, recovery to pre-pandemic value sales levels is around the corner the study indicates. Despite recent marginal slowdown thanks to the pandemic years, there is a strong pent-up growth for 2022 even against ongoing global political and economic instability and rising inflation.

Post Covid market sees gradual rise

The increases started during the last quarter of 2020 and beginning of 2021, when the personal accessories market in India, experienced a solid recovery in current sales value due to the pandemic subsiding and wedding and festive season taking off once more. Sales were hampered by the lack of mobility during the pandemic which impacted demand for bags, shoes and jewelry.

Euromonitor forecast for India states, the personal accessories segment due to their specific nature is projected to be among the last recovering industry after the pandemic. It is however expected that most products will only recover their pre-pandemic value sales in 2023 or 2024, although the apparel industry is back on track.

Weddings and global tourism hike up sales

The return of big and glitzy Indian weddings and other social functions along with the growing global tourism, have led to healthy overall sales of personal accessories in the luxury category. Euromonitor's latest data shows, the number of marriages taking place around the world fell 16 per cent in 2020 and again increased 4 per cent in 2021 and is expected to rise 6 per cent by end of 2022. The overall figures for marriages over the short to medium term remain stable as the pandemic subsides and new infections remain less deadly.

North and Latin America, Asia Pacific drive sales

A global new trend now is that wealthy customers are looking at luxury jewelry and timepieces as alternative assets and safe investments in times of financial crisis. Along with this, the concept of self-love and gifting oneself branded jewelry and watches among women with greater purchasing power is on the rise in North America, Europe and Asia.

Although China’s zero-Covid policy is pulling down sales in Asia and Europe is being affected by the Ukraine war, even then sales are increasing as people are now partying with a vengeance. Euromonitor points out that store-based retailing is the biggest distribution channel for personal accessories, accounting for over 80 per cent of all sales in 2022, as the look and remaining digital create a stronger customer base and omni-channel shopping experience.

Luxury brand accessories remain the most profitable

Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy (LVMH) is still increasing its lead over its closest competitors but Cie Financière Richemont is now ready to upset the usual rankings by registering the strongest growth, mainly driven by its iconic Cartier brand. Connected watches, driven by smart wearables, remain very popular. Their scale of impact can be seen from the newly-introduced timekeeping devices dataset like the Apple Watch which has emerged as the fifth largest global personal accessories brand this year with sales only marginally less than Rolex.

Now Samsung and Garmin have also jumped into the bandwagon of the top 20 industry brands of accessories. Most brands remain in the hope that the pent-up consumer demand and the need for being out and about will increase demand in the new breed of branded accessories segment.

With the deadline of importing duty-free cotton in India finally over on November 1, when the new season began, Indian cotton industry is in a fix. Recent disruptions in global supply chain have delayed India-bound cotton imports from Australia and the US which are stuck in transit, coupled with an acute shortage of containers. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has appealed to the textile minister Piyush Goyal, to extend the period for another month, as these shipments will take time to reach Indian ports.

CRISIL reports fall in cotton exports

Meanwhile, the duty-free extension will enable importers to receive the natural fibre as per government’s policy and reduce the suffering of cotton industry. Cotton prices have dropped recently by around 44 per cent from its peak of Rs 108,000 per candy of 356 kg and with the peak of the arrival season beginning, prices are expected to drop further drop.

As per a Credit Rating Information Services of India (CRISIL) report, lower Capital Expenditure (Capex ) will have a slight impact on credit profiles of cotton yarn spinners. Over the next few years, Indian cotton yarn will be benefitting from the US ban on Chinese exports from the Xinjiang region, which will boost its own sales. Even then, export volume will fall up to 20-25 per cent this year due to the high-base effect of last fiscal year and also because domestic demand is expected to pick up 7-9 per cent soon due to more orders from end-user segments. “There are three reasons for moderation in the profitability of spinners this fiscal year. First, is the fall in cotton-yarn spreads to Rs 90-95 per kg this fiscal (similar to Rs 85-90 per kg pre-pandemic) from Rs 115 per kg last fiscal. Second is low-capacity utilization in the first half that can’t be compensated fully in the second half, and third, expected inventory losses due to correction in cotton prices,” points out Gautam Shahi, Director of CRISIL Ratings,

Man-made fibers usage increases

As a result of this, the average debt to EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation) the ratio of cotton spinners could grow to twice this fiscal from an exceptionally low 1.4 times last fiscal. That would still be lower than the 3-3.5 times seen between fiscal years of 2017- 2020.Capex will be curtailed this fiscal to Rs 1,800 crore, which is equal to the average annual Capex of Rs 1,700 crore between fiscal years of 2017-2020- which included the Covid years - as compared with the Rs 2,400 crore last fiscal.

However, credit profiles will only be slightly impacted as Capex will be lower on-year while the working capital requirement is expected to remain stable and this will help to keep debt levels in check this fiscal year. Earlier, strong cash accruals which stemmed from higher profit margins had helped spinners to deleverage. These two together will help to keep the credit profiles of cotton spinners stable. This is indicated by an analysis of 110 cotton yarn spinners rated by CRISIL Ratings, which accounted for 35% of the industry’s revenue.

Industry analysts opine thanks to cotton import problems, demand for man-made fiber (MMF) products has risen sharply to 71 per cent with increased capacity utilization in textile mills using these fibres. International buyers feel the demand for cotton textiles will pick up during Christmas and the last quarter of this financial year once the inventory for textile goods is exhausted and improved production begins. The cotton industry remains in hope of the next quarter when it expects to make hay while the sun shines.

A full-fledged implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement can boost trade volumes by around 40 billion dollars.

With the rise in trade volumes, real incomes can increase by up to 2.5 percent, upswing trade activities among RCEP members by 12 per cent. It can help uplift the livelihood of an additional 27 million people into the middle class for the RCEP region by 2035 while RCEP is estimated to increase global incomes by up to 263 billion dollars.

RCEP is a free trade agreement among the Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The 15 member countries account for about 30 per cent of the world’s population. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is the world’s largest free trade agreement.

For instance Cambodia’s gross domestic product could rise by around two per cent to three per cent, exports would grow between nine per cent to 18 per cent, job opportunities would increase by three per cent to six per cent annually and tax revenue could increase by two per cent to three per cent per annum while the overall investment could increase by around 23 per cent.

Pre-industrial revolution that swept the West in the early 19th century, India was the undisputed hub of textiles. However, since then, inch by inch India found itself edged out, first by the mills of Manchester and later in the modern day context, from RMG manufacturing hubs like China, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Tiruppur shows the way

However, tucked away in Tamil Nadu’s fifth largest city Tiruppur is an industry that can serve as a role model for India to reclaim its crown. Tiruppur contributes about 90 per cent of knitwear exports from India. In 37 years, this city has just kept it going with a huge growth rate of 23 per cent annually – from a mere Rs 15 crore export to Rs 30,000 crores in 2021.

Today, Tiruppur exports cotton and cotton-blend T-shirts, dresses, sweatshirts, and other knitted clothes to the US, Europe, Australia and Canada. According to Tiruppur Exporters’ Association President Raja M Shanmugham, out of India’s total FY22 exports of around $480 billion, Tiruppur alone accounted for a 1.07 per cent share.

Mega textile parks the way forward

Tiruppur has inspired the Indian government to study its success story to replicate it across key areas within the country. In October 2021, the Union cabinet cleared a Rs 4,445 crore scheme to build seven mega textile parks over five years seeking to boost manufacturing and jobs. The central government and partnering states will take on board developers who will bring in other investors to set up production units. The developers will get long-term lease of the park with real estate development rights but it will be their responsibility to bring in investors to set up the units. The lease would initially be for 25 years, which could be extended by another 25 years. The master developer will develop the park and maintain it during the concession period.

As per textile secretary Upendra Prasad Singh under the ‘Prime Minister’s Mega Integrated Textile Region and Apparel’ (PM Mitra) scheme, special purpose vehicles (SPVs) will be set up with 49 per cent central government stake and 51per cent holding by the respective states. As per the plan, all seven parks are expected to generate approximately 100,000 direct and 200,000 indirect jobs. Viability gap funding up to 30 per cent will be made available for greenfield projects. Brownfield will be supported with 30 per cent of remaining costs up to Rs 200 crores. With this mega initiative, the government is serious about catapulting India back to where it belongs.

Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Assam, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana are the first 10 states that have responded to this initiative, presenting their viability indices for review and subsequent selection.

The mega parks are India’s way of climbing back to pole position and these parks are to be designed to bridge the gap where India falls short in the MMF sector of the industry. Whilst MMF contributes to anywhere between 60-65 per cent of global trade, India’s contribution compared to China is quite small. These parks will fulfill the role with focus on MMF production. With the parks expected to go operational in a few years, here’s hoping they will make India great again, textile-wise.

American imports of readymade garments from the world in the first nine months of 2022 increased by 34 per cent compared to the same period of the previous year.

US apparel imports from China grew by 28 per cent. Imports by the USA from Vietnam increased by 34 per cent. Imports from India grew by 53 per cent. Imports from Indonesia increased by 54 per cent. Imports from Cambodia grew by 46 per cent. Bangladesh’s readymade garment exports to the United States in September 2022 increased by 34 per cent.

The US is the largest export destination for Bangladesh. There are three reasons for Bangladesh’s export growth to the US market. One is the shifting of orders from China to other manufacturing countries and another is increasing demand for knitwear products on the market.

Also orders are being shifted from China. US buyers are shifting their orders from China in large volumes and Bangladesh is getting a portion of the orders. Apart from Bangladesh, some other countries, including Vietnam and India, are getting a share of the orders being shifted from China. Before the pandemic, Bangladesh’s export item to the US was mainly woven garments, but the demand for knitwear has increased on the market for the past two years.