The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its outlook for world trade volume in goods to 3 per cent in 2022 from the previous projection of 4.7 per cent in October. The outlook is marked by uncertainties caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-led economic downturn, says Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General, WTO. A strong consumer demand led to world trade volume growing by 9.8 per cent last year. However, this year, the double whammy of the pandemic and the war has once again lowered growth expectations, he adds.
Lockdowns in China are once again disrupting seaborne trade leading to shortages of manufacturing inputs and higher inflation, he adds. Given this volatile situation, WTO economists estimate merchandise trade volume in 2022 will either sink to 0.5 per cent or grow to 5.5 per cent.
As per a Women’s Wear Daily report, global trade value increased 26 per cent to $22.4 trillion in 2022, with China’s trade value growing 30 per cent to $3.36 trillion, followed by the US with 23 per cent growth to $1.75 trillion and Germany with an 18 per cent gain to $1.63 trillion. The value of apparel exports increased by 21 per cent to $550 billion in 2021, adds Coleman Nee, Senior WTO economist. The overall value of apparel trade was above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 crisis levels. China registered a 24 per cent increase to $176 billion, he adds.
Similarly, exports of Bangladesh and Vietnam surged by around 24 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively with their shipments values exceeding $30 billion each. Other apparel exporters whose exports surged last year included Turkey whose exports surged by 22 per cent to $18.7 billion; Cambodia, whose exports increased 8 per cent to $8 billion; India which reported a 24 per cent surge in exports to $16.1 billion and Indonesia whose exports increased 23 per cent to $9.3 billion. The exports of Sri Lanka, Egypt, Jordan, Mexico, Canada, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Peru, also grew by double digits.
In contrast, apparel exporters that posted double-digit contractions in 2021 included sanctions-hit Myanmar (Burma), and the United Kingdom.
