Due to crop damage in major producing states, India’s cotton output is likely to decline 12.4 per cent to hit the lowest in five years for the current crop year (October 2015–September 2016).

Recently, the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) under the Union Ministry of Textiles lowered the forecast it had made in February, saying the picture was now clearer. Output is now estimated at 33.8 million bales (a bale is 170 kg) for the current crop year, as against 38.6 mn bales the previous year (when drought had hit many states). The CAB had constituted three Sub-committees in its last meeting held in February last.

The sub-committee on prices recommended the format for compilation of prices and price reporting may be gradually shifted to metric system. For prices it recommended to refer to 29 mm length cotton indicating CAI’s spot prices, ICF prices, MCX Futures along with cot look prices. The Sub-committee on best practices on cotton farming is working and is likely to submit the report in next CAB meeting.

Its February forecast was 35.2 mn bales. Due to the expectation of less output this year, there has been a rise in prices; the benchmark Shankar-6 variety has increased by 35 per cent in five months, to Rs 12,710 a quintal at present. This is the highest since October 2013. As a result, garments are likely to get costlier.