This year, cotton output in all major cotton producing countries is estimated to be lower than the previous season. However, India is likely to emerge as the largest cotton producer in the world in 2015-16 with domestic trade estimating India’s cotton production at around 400 lakh bales.

As per Southern India Mills' Association (SIMA), the apex body of spinners in the southern region China has had to give up its place as the largest producer of cotton to India. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows global cotton production during 2015-16 is estimated at 23.68 million tonnes, 8.6 percent lower than the previous season’s production of 25.90 million tonnes.

Trade estimates suggest the production would be around 400 lakh bales of 170 kg each, although the USDA anticipated a marginal reduction in India's production. Sources say this takes India to the first position.

USDA estimates cotton area in India in 2015-16 (August to July) at 11.26 million hectares and cotton production at 370 lakh bales. In the latter half of the monsoon season although there was deficient rains and instances of pest presence in Gujarat and Punjab, hence, the anticipated yield could come down to 524 kg per hectare, lower than previous yield of 527 kg, state the sources.