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"Withstanding price pressures, Cotton spinners in India are resorting to production cuts in the current financial year to sustain profit margins. Experts estimate an average production cut of 15 per cent for fiscal 2017-18, if the current scenario continues. A recent study by Care Ratings estimates India's cotton yarn production at 3,936 million kg for financial year 2016-17, nearly five per cent lower than 4,138 million kg output reported in the previous financial year. For the past few years, cotton yarn production has increased by 3 -3.5 per cent to meet domestic demand and exports."
Withstanding price pressures, Cotton spinners in India are resorting to production cuts in the current financial year to sustain profit margins. Experts estimate an average production cut of 15 per cent for fiscal 2017-18, if the current scenario continues. A recent study by Care Ratings estimates India's cotton yarn production at 3,936 million kg for financial year 2016-17, nearly five per cent lower than 4,138 million kg output reported in the previous financial year. For the past few years, cotton yarn production has increased by 3 -3.5 per cent to meet domestic demand and exports.
India's cotton-spinning industry has been struggling with profitability for over two years due to a sharp decline in yarn exports following a slump in Chinese demand. Chinese textiles mills, which used to manufacture fabric after importing yarn from India, have now slowed down following the government's policy of discouraging energy-intensive industries. This has hit India's cotton yarn manufacturers hard.
While cotton prices have risen by eight per cent since January 2017 with the benchmark Shankar 6 variety currently trading at Rs12,035 a quintal, overall cost of production has also gone up by 8-10 per cent. Over 5 per cent appreciation in the rupee over the past three months has also impacted exporters' receivables proportionately. A recent Care Ratings report, however, estimates a five per cent decline in India's cotton yarn production for 2016-17 at 3,936 million kg as compared to 4,138 million kg for 2015-16. After declining by 10 per cent in 2011-12, cotton yarn production rose by over 14 per cent y-o-y to 3,583 million kg in 2012-13. In 2013-14, production was up by about 10 per cent to 3,928 million kg. High cotton prices and easy availability of MMF (man-made fibres) at competitive rates led to slower growth of cotton yarn production, the report said.
Production volumes
Cotton yarn demand in India grew at a healthy pace in 2015-16, supported by domestic demand and yarn exports. In 2016-17, demand is expected to be sluggish as derived demand and direct yarn exports will be under pressure. Also, with alternatives being explored for crude oil such as shale, prices of crude oil are largely expected to be stable during the year. Hence, demand for cotton yarn is set to face stiff competition from its easily available substitute – manmade fibres (synthetic yarns).
An Icra report said that the growth in spun-yarn production, including cotton, blended and man-made spun yarns, declined to a five-year low in FY2017, keeping production almost flat vis-a-vis the previous year. Further, improved competitiveness of polyester staple fibre (PSF) vis-a-vis cotton resulted in a five per cent YoY growth in non-cotton yarn production in FY2017, while cotton-yarn production is estimated to have declined by two per cent.
The domestic spinning industry remains highly dependent upon exports, with a third of India's cotton yarn having been exported during the past five years. Further, high dependence on exports to China and the resulting sensitivity of India's exports to China's policy on reserve cotton stock warrant a cautious outlook on India's yarn exports, until Chinese cotton stock levels subside to historical average, points out Jayanta Roy, Senior Vice-President, and Group Head, Icra. The research agency said that as overall yarn demand is expected to remain tepid, spinners may have to sacrifice capacity utilisation or contribution, and hence profitability is likely to remain under pressure. In addition to demand pressures, the spinners continue to face challenges on account of the high cotton prices.
The rupee’s appreciation by over five per cent against the dollar in 2017 is hurting Indian textile and apparel exports. The rupee’s strength has shrunk exporters’ margins. The dearer rupee also makes yarn, fabric and garment imports cheaper, hurting local manufacturers.
Export margins in apparels tend to be two or four per cent in dollar terms and the rupee appreciation has almost washed these away. Almost 70 per cent of India’s textile exports is dollar denominated. Meanwhile, currency depreciation in some of India's competing nations like China, Vietnam and Bangladesh is making their exports more competitive.
Exporters in the knitwear hub of Tirupur in Tamil Nadu fear they may lose orders to neighboring countries since they are at a 10 to 12 per cent price disadvantage. With the rupee appreciating this gap has widened by another four or five per cent.
An exporter supplying to one of the top three retailers in the US says his buyer prefers cheaper Bangladeshi textiles. He has let go of his margins but he’s still unable to compete with Bangladesh’s manufacturers. Tirupur is a sourcing hub for Walmart, Ralph Lauren, Diesel, Tommy Hilfiger, H&M and Marks & Spencer. GST is expected to have a further impact on exports as duty drawbacks will be curtailed, adding more pressure on the textile industry.
Consumers in the UK are moving their fashion spend online. A lot of their discretionary spend is going toward leisure activities. There has been a dip in demand for clothing, toys and household appliances.
And fashion retail lost out big time last year as more stores than ever closed. Closures outpaced store openings in 2016 for the seventh year running as chain stores, those with five branches or more, closed down to the tune of 5,430 units, compared to 4,534 opening. That left a gap of almost 900 stores, which was nearly double the closure gap in 2015.
Fashion is migrating online at a faster rate than ever, leaving closures in its wake. The only good news for fashion was that jewelry stores were among the fastest growing physical outlets last year.
The face of UK high streets is evolving with the fastest growth being seen for health clubs, coffee shops, and fast food locations. However, last year was relatively benign for restructuring and insolvency in all sub-sectors of retail, so the net closures point to structural changes in customer behavior more so than a consumer slowdown.
Retailers face the dual pressures of cautious consumers and rising operating costs. Transport costs are up.
The next ITM, Turkey’s well known textile machinery show will be held from, April 14 to 17, 2018. On display will be textile equipments and products, textile related software and solutions and other products and services. It gathers together some of the most important manufacturers of textile machinery from Turkey and around the world.
A significant increase will take place in terms of both exhibition area and number of participants. With increased participation from leading brands, the occupancy rate at the exhibition has grown up to 80 per cent this year. ITM is a showcase for weaving, printing, digital printing, flat and circular knitting, weft and warp knitting, spinning, winding, twisting, texturing, hosiery, quilting, dyeing and finishing machinery, textile chemicals, lab equipments, compressors and generators.
The event paves the way for innovation and creativity and delivers promising returns to exhibitors. The last exhibition, in 2016, welcomed 1,200 companies. Around 49,000 professionals attended, from 77 countries.
Most textile machinery manufacturers in Turkey range from small to medium sized companies. The line of textile machinery products manufactured by Turkish companies varies substantially from highly automated equipment to basic models. They have competence in most machinery categories such as atmospheric jet dyeing or blow dyeing.
Indo Intertex will be held in Indonesia from April 19 to 21, 2017. The event will display textile and garment machinery, knitting and hosiery machines, fabrics, yarns and garment accessories, raw materials, chemical laboratory and laundry equipment, digital textile printing machines and waste processing technology.
About 450 participants from 24 countries and 9,000 visitors are expected to attend the show. These include textile and yarn manufacturers, garment and apparel manufacturers, spinning mills, the chemicals and dyestuff industry, business consultants, chain store owners, textile and apparel traders and buyers. The event aims at finding investors for the textile and clothing industry who will build new factories. It is also intended to widen the domestic market for textiles and textile machinery products.
Indonesia wants to establish itself as a major sourcing destination for new buyers. Indonesian producers are trying to improve their capacity to meet the increasing demand and the changing market trends. Indonesia’s textile exports have seen a declining trend in the past few years. Export values reached a record high in 2011 before gradually dipping.
Electricity and logistics costs in the country are very high. Illegal import of garments and raw materials, have reduced the local industry's competitiveness, which was in its heyday in the 1990s.
Cotton prices in India have come under pressure since the second half of March 2017. The arrivals of cotton picked up pace during in March 2017. Arrivals during March 2017 were higher than arrivals during the corresponding month last year.
The rally in cotton prices since the start of the current calendar year halted at around Rs 21,740 per bale in the third week of March. After consolidating at this level for some time, prices have started to decline since March. Weak demand from cattle feed traders, coupled with an increase in the supply, pushed the price lower.
The other factors which will impact cotton prices in coming months are monsoon forecast in the sub-continent and the weather during the US planting season. A 21 per cent jump in US cotton acreage is projected. World cotton production is forecast to grow by one per cent in 2017-18 as high prices in 2016-17 encourage farmers to plant cotton.
India’s production is projected to grow by two per cent. Production in India is pegged at 345 lakh bales. Available stocks for the current season are above 500 lakh bales after adding carryover stocks and imports. Domestic use and exports during the current cotton season will be about 355 lakh bales.
Meet the Manufacturer will be held in Britain from May 24 to 25, 2017. This is the only sourcing event exclusively for British fashion, textiles and home ware. This year’s trade show will be the biggest and best yet, with over 150 exhibitors. The show opened in 2014. It aims at promoting UK manufacturing.
New for 2017 are a series of drop-in workshops and seminars, connecting manufacturers of textiles, apparel and leather goods with buyers, designers and retailers. Creative businesses will be given the opportunity to showcase their distinct and inspirational labels.
For decades, off-shoring almost totally depleted the UK fashion manufacturing industry, but rising production costs overseas, especially in China, combined with Britain’s vote to leave the EU present an incredible opportunity for British-made fashion to step out into the world. Since the greatest threat to the renaissance of British fashion is a lack of skills, the issue of skill development will be tackled at this year’s event.
Meet the Manufacturer inspires next generation of young people to make it in manufacturing and produce quality products in Britain. There will be sessions on innovation, heritage, producing knitwear and building partnerships with manufacturers. Speakers from fashion houses will share stories of survival and success.
"It’s always a tough challenge for cotton as it competes with synthetic fibers, and, for the past several years, cotton has been much more expensive than other fibres, points out Mark Messura, Senior Vice President – Global Supply Chain Marketing, Cotton Incorporated. In order to create an awareness of cotton fibres, Messura says, there have to be technologies and other things to make sure that retailers and brands, in particular, understand they can offer great cotton products in the kinds of styles and performance features they want with other fibers."
It’s always a tough challenge for cotton as it competes with synthetic fibers, and, for the past several years, cotton has been much more expensive than other fibres, points out Mark Messura, Senior Vice President – Global Supply Chain Marketing, Cotton Incorporated. In order to create an awareness of cotton fibres, Messura says, there have to be technologies and other things to make sure that retailers and brands, in particular, understand they can offer great cotton products in the kinds of styles and performance features they want with other fibers.
Brands and retailers didn’t know when the price of cotton went to $2 if it was going to $3, said Berrye Worsham, President & CEO, Cotton Incorporated. There was just so much uncertainty in the market, and that changed everything. Worsham noted cotton accounted for more than 60 per cent of the market in women’s apparel in the first quarter of 2011. Today, cotton accounts for about 40 per cent of that market segment. The good news is that for the last seven or eight quarters things have started changing for good. The cotton industry is trying to sell into a consumer market that is much more demanding than it was a few years ago. This time the fight is complicated by new trends in products such as active wear and terms like sustainability.
Positive initiatives
One of the areas Cotton Incorporated has been working on is how can cotton compete with synthetics in the performance market. The company has been taking major initiative in the last couple of years in active wear sector. The company is making sure cotton can compete as best they can at a price they can afford with technologies in this market. As a part of the initiative, Cotton Incorporated has developed a number of new technologies such as Storm Cotton, a waterproofing technology; TransDry, a moisture transfer technology; Wicking Windows, another moisture transfer feature; and Tough Cotton, which is an abrasion resistance technology. In many cases, retailers and brands adopt the technology and give it their own name. It’s all part of the process of making sure that cotton is top of mind for every step in the supply chain, says Kim Kitchings, Senior Vice President – Consumer Marketing, Cotton Incorporated.
Knowing the right approach to accomplish that takes research across all segments of the supply, and that’s what the Consumer Marketing Division at Cotton Incorporated is trying to do at a time the cotton industry has been struggling to regain markets from cheaper synthetic fibres. The environmental profile of cotton matters to groups like millennials. That makes sustainability and environmental footprints more important to marketing specialists at CI. It has also changed the way Cotton Incorporated is delivering the message about touch and feel of cotton, leading to a much greater emphasis on social media messaging and less reliance on traditional print and radio and TV advertising, according to Kitchings.
Textrade will be held in Mumbai on May 3 to 4, 2017. This is a trade fair dealing with fabrics and will display shirting and suiting fabrics for men’s wear, which will include cotton fabrics, linen and polyester, covering casual, formal and party wear.
Exhibitors have been allotted 80 stalls. The fair will also display latest international trends, developments and fashion forecast for 2017. A few sample garments will also be on display to represent the feel, texture and look of the final product. The aim is to present an opportunity to showcase fabric creativity, design innovation and color.
Only garment manufacturers, retailers and fashion designers will be permitted to visit. Around 10,000 footfalls are expected. India’s varied geographical regions and climates provide a huge range of plant fibers and natural dyes for cultivators, weavers, dyers, printers and embroiderers.
The per capita consumption of cloth in India was 22.87 sq. mt. in 1991-92 and is now 26 sq. mt. and one of the objectives of the fair is to increase it further. Textrade is organized by the Fabric Suppliers’ Association. FSA is the only association in India representing wholesale fabric suppliers. FSA arranges two Textrade fabric fairs every year in Mumbai and holds seminars and workshops for the benefit of members.
Exhibitors have reported strong increases in the number of contacts and enquiries they received compared to last year at Intertextile Shanghai was held March 15 to 17, 2017. While the quality of buyers sourcing at the fair continues to increase, many exhibitors also said they received a healthy spread of buyers at their booths, both from China and key markets in Asia and Europe, and that a satisfying proportion of these buyers were new potential customers.
Exhibitor numbers grew by 5.9 per cent at this edition from 26 countries and regions. New exhibitor countries included Denmark, Malaysia and Poland. The top ten visitor countries and regions, excluding China, were Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, the US, Taiwan, India, Russia, Turkey, Indonesia and the UK.
Among the more than 71,000 trade buyers sourcing at this year’s fair were a number of well-known global brands taking advantage of the show’s product range. Part of the fair’s recent success has been its ability to evolve to meet the changing needs of the market. The number of exhibitors displaying functional fabrics nearly doubled this edition, mirroring the continued strong demand for functional fabrics both in China and elsewhere.
The fair’s Beyond Denim area also grew in size at this edition, further cementing its place as the leading sourcing event for denim fabrics in China.
