As per the August 2025 ‘Cotton This Month’ report by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), global cotton production is projected to outpace consumption for the 2025-26 season. The report, which includes data and projections, highlights the dominance of India, China, Brazil, and Bangladesh in the upcoming season. Global production is estimated at 25.9 million tonnes, slightly exceeding the projected consumption of 25.6 million tonnes, with trade holding steady at 9.7 million tonnes.

Cotton season 2025-26 projections

The projections reveal a dynamic, interconnected global market where traditional powerhouses consolidate their dominance and emerging trade shifts reshape the landscape. India is expected to maintain its long-standing role as the global leader in cotton acreage. With 38 per cent of the world’s total area under cotton cultivation, the country continues to rely heavily on its vast agricultural land base, underscoring its strategic commitment to the cotton economy—even as productivity remains a focal challenge in comparison to other major producers.

Meanwhile, China is expected to retain its dual distinction: as both the world’s largest cotton producer and most voracious consumer. The country is projected to account for 24 per cent of global cotton output, but more strikingly, it will consume 8.2 million tonnes, 32 per cent of the world’s total usage. This reflects the enduring strength of China’s textile manufacturing sector, which, despite growing competition and environmental pressures, remains a global engine of cotton demand.

On the trade front, Bangladesh is forecast to emerge as the leading cotton importer for the season. Responsible for 19 per cent of all global imports, the country’s thriving ready-made garment (RMG) sector continues to drive its massive raw cotton needs—most of which must be met from abroad due to negligible domestic cultivation.

At the same time, Brazil is expected to rise to the top of the export charts. The South American agricultural giant is set to ship out 32 per cent of the world’s cotton exports, a testament to its increasingly efficient production systems and aggressive expansion into global markets.

Finally, the ICAC Secretariat’s price forecast for 2025-26 indicates a wide trading band, reflecting market uncertainties and potential volatility. Prices are expected to range from 57 to 94 cents per pound, with a midpoint forecast of 73 cents. This spread suggests sensitivity to factors such as global demand fluctuations, weather events, and trade policy changes. Together, these projections set the stage for a season shaped by both stability in leadership and evolving dynamics in trade—signaling another chapter in the complex, ever-changing story of global cotton.

Table: Global cotton leaders 2025-26

Leading cotton lint producers in 2024-25 estimate vs. 2025-26 projection

Based on the ICAC data, a slight shift in market share is projected among the top cotton producers. While China and India remain the top two, India is expected to increase its share, while China's share is projected to decrease slightly. The positions of other key producers like Brazil, the US, and Pakistan are expected to remain stable.

Table: Year wise comparison of cotton lint producers