Though luxury rebound in China is fueling hopes of a rapid recovery for high-end brands, analysts expect this spending to be different from the pre-pandemic world. According to Claudia D’Arpizio, Partner, Bain & Co, after a steep and sudden drop in the first quarter, many top luxury brands will end up positive for 2020 in China given the strong sales.

Yet, spending of the rich will shift dramatically in the next year or two, Bain says. Instead of splurging on experiences, which dominated luxury spending over the past decade and fueled much of its growth, the rich will focus their spending on physical products. Analysts say it will take at least a year or two before the affluent want return to crowded planes, restaurants and resorts.

Another big trend: accessories. Handbags and shoes will rule luxury spending in the near term, since they are accessible indulgences that cross all price points. Watches and menswear will suffer, along with women’s formal wear and dress clothes, Bain said. Jewelry will be a mixed bag as the price of gold has soared. Also, most of the spending will shift online and companies may need to shrink their store counts and adapt to fewer retail consumers.

Consumers will spend closer to home rather than traveling. In Europe, where luxury stores were often packed with Chinese tourists, brands now cater to a more local clientele. Generation Y is also expected to drive much of the spending in China as they shop online, Bain said.