India's cotton output is forecast at 6.3 million ton while that of China is at 6.4 million ton. India now stands a chance to grab the first position as the top cotton producer in the world in the 2014-2015 season. The acreage under cotton in India is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, up by 1.3 per cent from 2013-2014. China’s acreage decreased area by 8 per cent. China’s production in 2014-2015 would decline to 6.4 million tons.

In 2014-2015, the world cotton industry is expected to enter its fifth consecutive season in which production exceeds consumption. World production is forecast to decline by 4,00,000 tons. World ending stocks are projected to increase to 22.2 million tons at the end of 2014-2015 with ending stocks outside China forecasted to achieve a record 9.7 million tons. This expansion in world ending stocks outside China will put negative pressure on prices this season as China continues to liquidate its significant stocks.

Sales from the Chinese reserve reached 2.3 million tons in 2013-2014. During August, the government sold an additional 3,00,000 tons, which reduces estimated cotton stocks held in reserves at around 11 million tons. India’s demand is projected to reach 5.3 million tons in 2014-2015, which is the third season of demand growth.