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USDA Outlook shows US production up, world stocks down

USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum released Preliminary projections for 2016-17 marketing year. US cotton planted acreage is projected at 9.4 million acres, or nearly 10 per cent above 2015. Cotton planted area is expected to rise due mainly to a return of area prevented from being planted last season as a result of wet conditions.

US domestic mill use is projected unchanged from 2015-16. US cotton exports are projected at 10.7 million bales in 2016-17, an increase of nearly 13 per cent, due to expectations for higher US exportable supplies and relatively tight foreign stocks outside of China.

The USDA Outlook said world cotton production is expected to rise 4 per cent to 105.5 million bales. Area devoted to cotton is projected to remain about even with 2015, while yields are expected to recover from the adverse weather and pest problems that affected global output in the preceding year, notably in Pakistan and India.

According to USDA, world trade in 2016-17 is projected at 35.0 million bales, the same level as 2015-16. China’s imports are also projected even with 2015-16, but Pakistan’s imports are likely to fall sharply as domestic production recovers. Overall world stocks are expected to fall five million bales to 99.0 million in 2016-17, but global stocks will remain well above historical levels. The projected decline in China’s stocks more than accounts for the global reduction. As a result, stocks outside of China are projected to increase marginally.