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USDA cotton supply/demand estimate indicates rise in planting

Production of cotton in the US is anticipated to rise 15 per cent from 2015-16, based on 9.6 million planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, combined with below-average abandonment, due to relatively favorable moisture, and average yields. A projected cotton crop of 14.8 million bales in 2016-17 in the US is expected to boost next season’s ending stocks, well above the beginning level. Domestic mill use is projected to be stable at 3.6 million bales, while exports are expected to rise to 10.5 million, on higher available supplies and more marketable qualities. Ending stocks are projected at 4.7 million bales, or one-third of total use. The preliminary range for the marketing year average price received by producers is 47.0 to 67.0 cents per pound.

During 2015-16, US cotton production increased marginally. Export forecast is reduced to 9.0 million bales, reflecting lower-than-anticipated export sales to date, with ending stocks raised accordingly. As per 2016-17 global cotton projections, a decline in stocks of more than 6.0 million bales is expected, as consumption exceeds production for the second consecutive season. Global production is expected to rise 5 per cent, despite marginally lower area, as yields recover from weather and pest pressures that affected crops in 2015-16. Production is forecast to rise mainly in Pakistan, United States, India, and Turkey, partially offset by a 1.3-million-bale reduction in China. Global consumption is projected to rise 1.6 per cent, as prices overall remain low and mills in China gain access to domestic cotton at more competitive prices.