China’s cotton imports are predicted to significantly rise in volume terms this season due largely to the demand for high-quality fibre by their local spinning industry, US officials analysed. The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Beijing bureau assessed China’s cotton imports at 1.30m tonnes (5.97 m bales) in 2017-18, on an August-to- July basis. That would represent an increase of over 2,00,000 tonnes year on year, significantly bigger than the 58,000-tonne increase, to 1.15m tonnes (5.30m bales), that the USDA has officially forecast.

The bureau’s estimate comes despite persistent market rumours that China may be poised for accelerating buy-ins, with some rumours of a potential increase in their import quota of 8,94,000 tonne permitted in with a 1 per cent tariff that is within an agreement with the World Trade Organisation.

The bureau emphasised that since July, anecdotal reports have circulated that the Government might be considering special approval to allow for some imports of high-grade cotton. Given the Chinese textile sector’s increasing demand for high-grade cotton, traders anticipate the government may increase its flexibility in issuing additional import quota.

The Chinese textile sector grew steadily in 2017 and in consideration of all these factors, it is logical for the Government to approve some cotton imports to meet the industry demand in 2018, the bureau said, adding that it remains unclear when the government will allow additional cotton imports.

Latest Chinese cotton import customs data, for October, the month after the closure of the government’s 2017 auction programme of supplies from the country’s cotton stockpiles, came in at 78,128 tonnes, a rise of 89 per cent year on year.