India’s cotton production is likely to decline by over 14 per cent to a five-year low in 2015-16. One reason is a decline in yield of the standing crop in north India. Farmer suicides in states like Andhra Pradesh, Telengana and Maharashtra made for a tragic picture.

Cotton sowing started weak this year on low soil moisture following deficient monsoon rainfall. The overall acreage has declined to 11.76 million hectares from 13.08 million hectares a year ago. The 15 per cent decline in average acreage in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Gujarat and Maharashtra is likely to hit farmers.

Unlike last season, when one or two spells of rainfall supported flowering, development and maturing of pods, the lack of winter showers has hit cotton yields now.

In Karnataka the cotton output is estimated at about 1.8 million bales, down from three million bales last year. Whitefly infestation in Punjab and Haryana is set to reduce output of this region to 4.05 million bales from 5.2 million bales in the previous year. The output in Gujarat is also likely to slump to about 9.5 million bales this year from 12.2 million bales a year ago.

There are allegations the yield in some states has been impacted because of spurious seeds supplied to farmers.