The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has maintained a steady global outlook for the 2025/26 cotton season, projecting production at 26 million tonnes and consumption at 25.7 million tonnes. Trade volumes are expected to rebound, reaching approximately 9.7 million tonnes a 2 per cent increase from the previous season driven by higher carryover stocks and anticipated mill demand.

The ICAC’s regional production forecasts show upward revisions for Brazil, the United States, and West Africa. However, these gains are likely to be offset by a slight reduction in China’s output. Despite the decrease, China is still expected to lead global production with 6.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, following a record yield of 2,257 kg/ha in the current season.

While supply remains stable, global cotton consumption continues to face pressure due to growing concerns over tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, and increasing competition from alternative fibres. The cotton trade outlook, though positive, may be influenced by geopolitical trade tensions and evolving tariff structures, the ICAC cautioned.

Price forecasts from the ICAC Secretariat place the average A Index for 2024/25 at 81 cents per pound. For the upcoming 2025/26 season, preliminary estimates suggest a wide price range between 56 and 95 cents per pound, with a midpoint forecast of 73 cents. These projections are based on current market fundamentals and were provided by Lorena Ruiz, ICAC’s Economist.

The ICAC continues to monitor developments across production, consumption, and trade that may affect cotton market dynamics heading into 2026.